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To: Terry Jackson who wrote (6713)	1/18/1998 12:01:00 PM
From: Sycamore	Respond to of 11888

TIPS from the Insider Trader: Investors prospecting for investment opportunities should view the summaries sorted by transaction value (a good proxy for significance), while investors checking up on stocks they own should view the summaries sorted alphabetically. Insider buying is more significant than insider selling. There are numerous legitimate reasons for executives to sell shares. Buying a new house, sending kids to college, or simply diversifying assets are just a few. It is very common to see a lot of selling in a high-flying stock, and for that stock to keep rocketing. In contrast, there is generally only one reason executives buy their company's stock: they expect to make some money. Insiders tend to be early with their transactions. A multimillion dollar investment by several insiders in their beaten-down stock does not necessarily mean they expect it to recover next week. It is more an indicator of longer-term value. Insiders closest to day-to-day operations are the most important to watch. These include the chairman, president, CFO, vice presidents, and directors. Beneficial owners and large shareholders are generally codes for large entities or partnerships. These insiders can be responsible for the largest trades in terms of dollar values, but they are generally less significant because they are usually part of a corporate transaction where the individuals making the investment decision don't necessarily stand to suffer if the investment fails. It is always more significant when more than one insider trades. A "cluster" of activity gives a sense of unanimity of opinion regarding a company's prospects. Options-related trades are less significant than open-market transactions. It means a lot more when insiders invest their savings than when they simply reap the benefits of buying shares at below market prices and immediately selling them for a profit. This is why InsiderTrader's summaries only include open-market transactions. P.S. Thanks for posting the entire article. I had that feeling it's there somewhere. sycamore

To: Terry Jackson who wrote (6713)	1/18/1998 12:30:00 PM
From: qdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11888

A Houstonian, in an energy town, if not the worlds capital, irrate about the fact that there is more production than demand? Why should I not be surprised by this? I can also take the lessons of the early to mid 80's, when folks in this town where chanting the same thing, predicting $80 oil. buying Rolex's for everyday of the week and predicting no end to the boom. Building rigs on a daily basis, speculating on land, etc. Why was their a S&L crisis and where did it begin? Where was this guy warning about production rates and demand then. By all accounts the US and the world were in an economic boom then too. OR was REaganism, Thatcherism and the Japan INC. boom just false? There was as much an increase in demand back then, but the world found far more oil and created a glut. While Russia's and Alaska output was in decline!! The only region that has a difficult infrastucture dilema is the Caspian. West Africa can be developed quickly and cheaper. I notice that he is irrate at one agnecy, but the industries own watchdog, API, is saying much the same thing. Industry insiders all repeat the same mantra about this boom, "We are cautiously optimistic." "We are happy making money based on $18-20 oil." Drillers are not indiscriminately building rigs. Instead they are building only special deep water rigs. They have plenty of the others. They aren't in the mood to build more either. At best they are refurbishing existing fleets. Lesson learn? For now at anyrate, but then prices aren't supportive for that kind of excess seen in the early '80's. You now have OPEC having an emergency meeting to cutback production quota's, NOT RAISING THEM. That's not depletion, but good ole production manipulation to support a higher price. This guy probably was massacre in the commodity pits on oil, gas, nat gas and fuel oil the past month. I'd be screaming if I made a bet and it didn't pan out. I'd also be crying because retail business in oil related commodities are probably down right now. I also disagree about the depletion, not when for the past 5 years majors have steadily talk about replacing reserves at 125% and above depletion, year over year. Or are all the annual reports of these companies lies? Oil company complacency? Explain year over year exploration budget increases for the past 5 years? That doesn't sound complacent, now does it. They just discovered a giant nat gas field in Galveston Bay, A HEAVILY explored area over the years. That won't take anytime to bring on line, with all the pipelines that crisscross this region. Never fear, oil is due to rally at least to it's downtrend line, we will see if that breaks it then or not. If OPEC cuts back production then it probably will, but I don't see Indonesia and Venzuela agreeing to cutting back. It's going to fall on the Mideast as usual and Saudi in particular, the guys with the largest reserves in the world.