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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shasta23 who wrote (7872)	1/18/1998 1:02:00 AM
From: Richard Estes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

You must trust the system, you need to see it react in the range or sharp drops. This takes looking back over the years and many charts to show that it won't hurt me and the logic is valid. Another problem occurs when you put say, a 200 day ma in 500 days of data, you may be missing 2 trades before the ma starts and you may have to wait 100 more to get a buy. Those that only look at % profit, automatically think it doesn't work. If you set up dahl based on cross of 0, that is 2 months you lose and you may miss another two months of evaluating how it will act. Tommorow may be the start of a downward trend or a base, you really don't know, and you don't know how your system reacts to it unless your testing has shown you. Remember someday, somehow, even an 99/99 stock heads down or sideways. EMA and its brothers VAR, VOL, vidya all have the first day of data in them somewhere. You also miss the history of support and resistance that will say with a stock as long as there were buyers from that time. Looking at only bull market data for a stock can give you a false picture of S/R. Enough said. I suggest a min of 5 years.