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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (82205)	1/9/2019 7:02:38 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 95572

He noted that in the prior downturn in memory stock prices bottomed four months before memory chip prices did. Hmmm. I thought memory prices almost always went down. So...the idea of the memory price "bottoming" doesn't quite make sense to me. Stabilize perhaps is a better word, but even that, don't they fall each year with the exception of uncommon "technology transition" years? This brings to mind a question I have. NAND prices are clearly in freefall this year, the SSD prices and the China Flash Market pricing info demonstrate that decline. The memory stocks have collapsed, and in my opinion there future price direction will be based more on how much the memory price declines continue, or stabilize, or what the memory prices actually do, more than anything else. So I would say now the memory industry (probably both DRAM and NAND, although I don't pay much attention to DRAM as I'm more interested in NAND) is on the downward slope part of the "cycle". Prices are collapsing, they're declining too fast, at least that's been the case for the past 6-9 months, with perhaps even price decline acceleration in Q4 2018. So here's the question - what do we look for as the indication that the cycle has bottomed and perhaps turned up (or at least stabilized)? What are the leading indicators that make trading investors who hopefully sold at the peak in Q4 last year now buy to ride the upwave? Any ideas? I haven't got much of a clue. We've seen cuts in capacity expansion by the memory makers. That's gotta be a positive sign. What else would convince traders NOW is the time to get involved in memory?