To: Sdgla who wrote (1109663 ) 1/11/2019 5:59:45 PM From: maceng2 Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1571331 Here is an interesting analysis of the Climategate reported "U turn". This guy is all upset about the MSM Press trashing Climate Change. Sure I get uptight too when somebody takes a sour view of some figures that I think indicates a trend. youtube.com He then uses waves and the tide coming in or out to refer to a statistical analogy. He also states he hates statistics, which is a bit of a giveaway. The fact is real science is not afraid of the truth, or detractors. Hey, even peer review is all about making sure the figures and the interpretation is valid in all respects for the conclusions given Anyway. the 05% / 95% confidence limits were plucked out of the air as being what we use as a confidence level, so we should stick with it. If he wants to use statistics as a source of illumination rather then as a drunkard uses a streetlamp for support, he should be using his analogy more skillfully. Like for example if the time for the tide measurement was chosen entirely at random, how many waves would he measure before he was reasonably confident before he knew the tide going in or out, or in fact was he standing at the edge of an inland water where there was no tide? He didn't do that though. He used an example where the tide was coming in, with the random movement of the waves and that was a nice example of a trend... JUST LIKE GLOBAL WARMING. i.e he was pissing on my tent flat and announced it was raining. Yeah I think I can see why he doesn't like statistics. Nice convincing voice though. He has an assured career in the media with those persuasive skills once he doesn't try and get involved with statistics. Sure I am pissing on the guy, but really it is also an example to show how easily we can slip up with interpreting the results. I find the data on many personal web blogs a lot more reliable then anything on the MSM. Science papers I am most wary of. Those guys are professionals. One of my colleagues from my engineering days used to openly state that "Hey, I have an advanced degree in science, so I can bullchit as good as anyone". He went far in his career too.