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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg Strzegowski who wrote (30917)	1/18/1998 10:09:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

FIRST CALL EARNINGS ESTIMATES ASND Ascend Communications 01/12/98 Industry: Com-wo AT&T SIC: 3576 Latest Price: $26.94 1997 P/E: 25.7 Analyst Recommendation: 2.5 QTR QTR FY FY Dec 97 Mar 98 Dec 97 Dec 98 --- --- -- -- CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.22 0.24 1.05 1.15 Number of Brokers 26 18 27 27 Median 0.23 0.25 1.06 1.16 Standard Deviation 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.15 Current High 0.25 0.28 1.09 1.35 Current Low 0.14 0.12 0.97 0.47 Year Ago EPS 0.32A 0.31A 1.00A 1.05 Current vs. Year Ago Change -31% -23% 5% 10% Report Date Jan 20 wk/Apr 10 Jan 20 - EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM Up Revisions last 7 days 0 1 0 1 Up Revisions last 30 days 0 1 0 1 Down Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0 Down Revisions last 30 days 3 0 1 1 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS Current Mean 0.22 0.24 1.05 1.15 7-days ago Mean 0.22 0.24 1.05 1.15 30-days ago Mean 0.22 0.24 1.05 1.15 60-days ago Mean 0.23 0.25 1.06 1.16 90-days ago Mean 0.23 0.24 1.05 1.18 COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS Industry - Com-wo AT&T 14.70 8.64 42.82 53.15 Current vs. Year Ago Change 11% 10% 21% 24% Sector - TECHNOLOGY 10.30 9.16 35.71 43.59 Current vs. Year Ago Change 10% 10% 20% 22% WSJ/DJ US Index 11.15 10.95 42.72 48.83 Current vs. Year Ago Change 8% 10% 11% 14% Ratios Relative To: Company Industry Sector WSJ/DJ P/E on 1997 Cal Yr Mean 25.7 28.90 24.37 20.84 PEG on 1997 Cal Yr Mean 0.73 1.21 1.34 1.66 RECOMMENDATION AND GROWTH RATES RECOMMENDATIONS LONG TERM GROWTH RATES Current Mean 2.5 Next 5 yrs - Median 35% Number of Brokers 23 Number of Brokers 9 Industry Recommendation: 1.9 Industry Growth Rate: 24% 7-days ago Mean 2.5 Next 5 yrs - High 50% 30-days ago Mean 2.5 Next 5 yrs - Low 20% 60-days ago Mean 2.3 Last 5 Years 128% 90-days ago Mean 2.3 Diff. from Industry -0.6 Rel. to Industry 1.5 Diff. from Sector -0.5 Rel. to Sector 1.9 Diff. from WSJ/DJ US -0.3 Rel. to WSJ/DJ US 2.8 Transmitted: 1/13/98 2:22 PM (E_ASND)

To: Greg Strzegowski who wrote (30917)	1/18/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: Larry J.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

and.........ZACKS ESTIMATES: zacks.com:8008/ows-bin/owa/REZ1?STR1=asnd The "high-end" of analysts estimates for the quarter is .25 (1st Call). According to Ashby (CFO) on Jan. 7 "Analysts project 300MM and 25 cents/share for Q1...Frankly, anything over that, I don't care. Our primary objective is to regain the respect of the Street. We will meet the projected numbers, towards the high end each time.". To a degree this is already factored into the share price (15 % gain this week). Management is clearly in control of the number they put out on Tues (and for Q1 as well). ASND has done an outstanding job of reducing inventories from the previous quarter. Many distributors and direct suppliers to ASND took back significant volumes of components during the quarter resulting in large credits to ASND . The suppliers then re-ship these same components to the contract manufacturers who only utilize them upon demand creation by Ascend. Ascend "cleaned out their cupboards" big time! This is known as a virtual factory model and is the same model that CSCO has used for years. There will definitely be efficiencies realized from this shift during the quarter. IMO, ASND will report .26 per share on Tues. (305 MM) Larry