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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (145393)	1/13/2019 7:35:52 PM
From: TobagoJack	2 Recommendations Recommended By Cogito Ergo Sum Secret_Agent_Man Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217622

hi ant, <<Why would (9) default ever occur when one need just print?>> am guessing that at some juncture the interest payment grows faster than tax in-take and tolerable-inflation rise, and commerce hiccups, ala Venezuela now, Zimbabwe earlier, and whichever next the fact that the USD is s reserve currency simply says that the eventual crisis shall be all-encompassing, galactic, thorough, and never before experienced in history, unless of course a lot of de-couplings happen along the way to lessen the one-off shock am using the word <<default>> in its broadest meaning, including <<inflation>>, that which goes linear, then parabolic, hyperbolic, exponential, then asymptotic, and then goes cardiac arrest, as well as debt jubilee, etc, but generally resulting in systemic zero-state hard reset the French did it this way, that which can be directly linked w/ the eventual revolution, and Napoleon, and and and ... wwi, and wwii of the various ways to default that I have ever heard of, I cannot recommend any as the preferred way the German method, which had its root in wwi, and branches in wwii the Chinese (inventor of paper, ink, paper money, and money transfer function) protocol, that which grandpa had something to do w/ reneging, and then a lot of folks died ala French experience, and so know enough by second then first hand about systemic resets the Zimbabwe experiment the Carthaginian method involve use of too much salt but no pepper, and not painless

To: THE ANT who wrote (145393)	1/13/2019 7:58:56 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217622

re all debts tagged to the use fed debt ... believe gundlach and other chicken-littles do not (or should not) see immediate issue, but sense that events cannot continue on current trajectory w/o painful to very-painful consequences zerohedge.com "Swimming In An Ocean Of Debt": Gundlach Sounds The Alarm Over $122 Trillion In Unfunded LiabilitiesAfter laying out the reasoning behind his considerably more pessimistic view on the US economy during his widely watched "Just Markets" podcast, DoubleLine Capital Founder Jeffrey Gundlach - whose flagship Total Return Fund outperformed the benchmark again in 2018 - delved into some of the same themes from his year-ahead podcast this week during a round table discussion hosted by Barron's, during which the legendary bond trader warned that record levels of corporate debt - particularly in the lower-rungs of the investment-grade universe, which has swollen as companies binged on debt to buy back stock during the ZIRP years, could create problems for the equity market. But an even bigger long-term threat to markets is emanating from the supposedly "safe" market for US Treasury debt. [url=][/url] As we've warned and Gundlach has also highlighted, the risks posed by companies that could soon become "fallen angels" is rising as the US economy is "swimming in an ocean of debt." But though the risks posed by corporate debt are serious, during the round table Gundlach was more focused on the risks posed by the ever-expanding US debt - which he argued is even bigger than most Americans realize. [url=][/url] While the US government reported a budget deficit of $800 billion during the fiscal year ended on Sept. 30, the national debt increased by some $1.3 trillion dollars. The difference, as Gundlach explained, represents the cost of national disaster relief and other expenditures that are considered one-offs. "Fiscal year for the federal government ends Sept. 30 and the official reported deficit was $800 billion dollars. The national debt increased by $1.3 trillion dollars. The differences can be things like national disaster relief and other things that are considered one off. Also there's the lending from the social security system so that's real debt too." The upshot, is the "debt has been going up a lot more than people think." And what's worse, is that, according to Gundlach's calculations, the total unfunded liabilities for welfare programs like social security amount to some $122 trillion - roughly six times annual GDP. The answer put forward by most politicians is that this is a long term problem, and that the day of reckoning can perpetually be delayed by more borrowing. But there's one problem with that. Every year, the share of the US federal budget consumed by debt service is rising. "If you put enough short terms together, you get a long term. The CDO, they project that by 2025, the interest expense could be 5% of GDP. The near-term is turning into the long term in the next few years unfortunately." Meanwhile, Gundlach reiterated his view that equities have entered a bear market, saying he expects stocks to continue to weaken before a rebound begins during the second half of the year. "So now we are in a bear market, which isn’t defined by me as stocks being down 20 percent. A bear market is determined by the way stocks are acting," he said. Gundlach also warned that, for all Trump's gloating about a strong economy, most of this growth has been artificial and fueled by unsustainable debt. "I'm not looking for a terrible economy, but an artificially strong one, due to stimulus spending," Gundlach told the panel. "We have floated incremental debt when we should be doing the opposite if the economy is so strong." In other words, Gundlach expects fiscal policies to overtake monetary policy as the primary locus of concern for investors. Watch a clip from Gundlach's interview below: