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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (145399)	1/13/2019 8:16:47 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By Secret_Agent_Man Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217615

to think through, and I am pondering on the go, as a thought experiment, let us suppose tomorrow trump, instead of going for a wall, and pushes button on foreign-owned debt jubilee. what happens next? - 1/3 of fed debt (6 trillion out of a lot more trillions enumerated earlier) explodes in foreigners hand, and everything else blows up in the domestics wallet due to sharp rise in market interest rate to refinance the remaining load of 2/3 of fed debt, and along with that kaboom, goes the state, local, corporate, and individual debts - 25 trillion of domestically held debt would have to be rolled over (1.x X GDP), and 100-200 trillion of unfunded obligations then exposed to sun shine given the then topical news - market interest rate would go up sharply, or fed rate go seriously negative via fiat money suppression - not good what happens next? - no more foreign buyers of new debt, and would take domestic printing, taxing, and borrowing no time to rack up 7 trillion of new debt crammed down domestic throats, that which used to be financed by overseas savings pool, and the same domestics population would be relieved of 7 trillion of overseas equity holdings ala compensatory confiscation and concurrent exchange control by newly-stiffed creditor nations, corporations and individuals - not good consolation prize, gold goes to ... any number

To: THE ANT who wrote (145399)	1/13/2019 8:28:10 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By Secret_Agent_Man Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217615

USA GDP @ ~20 trillion USA government sector revenue (tax take) @ ~ 6.5 trillion USA government interest payment (if at low rate of 5%) would be at 1 trillion, compounding Officially recognising inflation for the true rate would send cost of money up to the teens, and that way is also off limits. ... etc etc ... parabolic, hyperbolic, exponential, and asymptotic So, when the Fed talks normalisation of cost of money, it is talking cratering, as trump correctly pointed out. But should the Fed rate not go up, the pensions are done, and would require a bail out, that which would add to the inflation / printing / borrowing binge, and ... there are a lot of ways to get to the destination, but none ideal. Believe to have half a chance, requires serious international cooperation, that which is in short supply.