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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter grossman who wrote (13741)	1/18/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: Kerry Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29386

Peter , you wrote: <<Please tell us which large OEMs have any chance of announcing a deal in the next month, or two, or three, or four, or five. How do you know? The only guideline about timetables I can recall was great caution in the last conference call -- something about how protracted the evaluation process is.>> 1. Common sense..If Ancor is publicly stating that OEM ramp is 3rd quarter ( look to Kinnard quarterly revenue forecast ), then work backwards as to when decisions must be made, beta product shipped/tested , stocking orders placed, etc...Regarding dates, these are FORECASTS and obviously dates can get pushed out due to FC industry issues,.( see Emulex, Ciprico, etc commentary on FC ramp-up) as well as OEM product development issues like software design, etc. Uncertainty does not stop "professional analysts" from making market calls on the speed of ADSL, K56 standards/deployment etc..How accurate has the ADSL industry and the financial community been in predicting if/when ADSL will be commercially/widely deployed? 2. I did not say "announcements". I said "up for grabs" which means I anticipate that a number of OEM's will make their final decisions in this timeframe. I have no specific predictions on when announcements will be made which is beyond Ancor's control as some OEM's might be in a rush to announce for PR reasons while others might want to keep a lid on a new product to milk their existing product and avoid cannibalization. 3. It would be very easy/tempting to lay the names out here ( Sun personnel do not deny they are evaluating both Brocade and Ancor ), but other than to satisy your curiosity, it does Ancor more harm than good to have specific names bandied about on the Internet. What names have you heard from the Brocade camp? Do you think Company "X" would be happy to see their productization timetables divulged on the investment forum of a potential vendor? If you were Company "X", why would you want to do business with someone that cannot honor an NDA? The reason I mentioned STK as a probable partner for Brocade is because that info is coming from Industry sources outside of Ancor. If Ancor ends up with a relationship with STK, I will be pleasantly surprised. I'm sorry you did not get answers to your questions. If you think it's just another case of " Peter ( JB), the Boy who cried Wolf", then that's your perogitive and you should take your chips off the table before they announce the expected lousy Q4 numbers and the qualified opinion is always a possibility if they cannot raise money in time. Bankruptcy and/or de-lisitng cannot be totally ruled out. However, even in that worst case scenerio, the technology/intellectual property should fetch a handsome price. Also, don't forget that Brocade has "Andy B" working behind the scenes in the favor and could be the trump card that Brocade needs to win Sun. This is what I mean by "Boom or Bust". Comprende'?