Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (6226)	1/18/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

Bobby, I didn't hear the broadcast but I suspect that there was a misunderstanding of what Armstrong said concerning the Canadian dollar. In PEI's latest "The world Capital Market Review", he says "Support in 1998 begins at the 6983 level followed by 6650 and 5845." He doesn't state where he thinks it will end in 98 but he does state that new lows are just ahead. In addition, he states that, if it closes the year (98) below 6983 it could lead to a continued bear market. Note the word "could" and the dependence on a closing below a value. This is typical of his if A then B comments. However, while I believe he sees the 5845 level as only a remote possibility, in the introduction to the Review, he state that "The Canadian dollar is headed to new record lows well beyond that of 1986, ---" He has indicated in several discussions and papers that he sees Canada as one of the next to get the Asian Flu. However, he notes that, while Canada has borrowed in currencies other than its own, these borrowings are only about 5% of its total debt. You note that Canada has some good companies and he observes that Canada is a bargain for doing business in every area except taxes. He quotes a study showing Canada to be the 11th cheapest place to do business and 3rd among developed countries. However, the tax burden in Canada is very high. I'm sure you are aware that businesses moved to the UK from all over Europe when the corporate tax was reduced. Liberals love the corporate taxes. The poor aren't smart enough to realize they are a tax on goods. They are presented as a tax on the rich. In additon, they are structured to reward the inefficient and penalize the successful; thereby further increasing the cost of goods and services. You are right, you did read that the suit was being dropped and heard/read the opinion of a commodities analyst that he didn't believe there has been manipulation of the supply of Silver. I have heard/read several such comments, and would like to believe them. However, in his latest --- Review, Armstrong references a Bloomberg story "confirming that this so-called shortage in Silver is the manipulation of 2 dealers and one hedge fund". He refers to reliable sources saying that it is stockpiled in London. I also read somewhere that he recommended on Dec. 31 that the trading arm of PEI short Silver. He has recommended to his clients that they stay of out of the Silver market and I'm sure that his major clients received that Recommendation before Dec. 31. He has been bearish on Silver for a long time for reasons that I don't buy but who am I to argue. Last, you mention Jacqueline Doherty's comments, in Barron's this week, concerning the Japanese dropping out of the US investment-grade, new-loan market and the resultant improvement in negotiating power of banks. I agree, it seems inconsistent with the interest rate picture. It seems to me that it is also inconsistent with Armstrong's view (shared by many, including Milhouse, these days) that investment capital flows into the US will put a floor under our markets and push interest rates lower. Again, I don't know who is right, but interest rates have been backing up a bit the last week or so. I suspect that Doherty is looking at too short a time frame. Larry