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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (82356)	1/23/2019 8:23:31 PM
From: Elroy	2 Recommendations Recommended By Return to Sender Sam Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95480

I bought WDC puts. I think the report will be a disaster, and 2019 guidance must be a lot lower. In their Q3 call I think WDC reduced Q4 2018 expectations from about $3.00 to about $1.50? One quarter of news caused a 50% haircut in the forecast for the next quarter? The trend in 2019 is going to be that SSDs strongly replace disk drives in PCs. SIMO's CFO said at a Jan presentation that PC makers are telling SIMO (SIMO makes SSD controllers) that they expect SSD penetration in PCs to move from ~33% in Q2 2018 to ~66% in Q4 2019. That's a lot of vanishing disk drive units that are gone forever. In loads of those disk drive displacements WDC loses a disk drive unit sale, and WDC only gains a SSD unit sale when it beats MU, INTC, Samsung, Toshiba, etc for the slot. Combine that trend with rapidly declining NAND flash prices, and I don't see how WDC can work in 2019. My two cents. I've been wrong before (more often that not!!).