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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (82385)	1/24/2019 9:01:43 PM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95490

Some great slides on WDC performance reported by SA AH. The presentation by WDC started at 5:30pm when the stock was trading in AH about 38.60. At 6:00pm WDC was trading about 44.50, nearly a 6.00 jump. The slides tell the tale. Disgaree. There's nothing good in the slides, other than $100m in COGS reduction and $100m in planned OpEx reduction. WDC revenues are going from $5b in Q3 2018 to $3.5b in Q1 2019 (and probably lower after that). That's a $1.5B decline in revenues in six months. Who cares about $200m in future COGS and OpEx reductions in the face of $1.5b loss of revenues? The lost disk drive revenues are never coming back. Right? They are being replaced by SSD sales, and not all of the replacement sales are from WDC. What in the slides was positive? I don't see the positive story that has come out of this report. Can someone provide the good news which we learned in the report? Tech companies throughout history have said "things will improve after two quarters". That's not good news. That's normally BS bad news prayer-like commentary. Does anyone here want to buy WDC at $44 with the really really bad news coming in the next six months because..........you're confident Q2 2019 is the bottom, and you're sure WDC's outlook will improve from then on, and get better and better and better in H2 2019 ... and beyond? How can you have any confidence that NAND price declines won't GET WORSE in H2 2019, more disk will get replaced (never to return) by the very cheap NAND, and WDC needs to cuts Op Ex again, as happens to large debt laden companies in declining segments? Hint - I'm amazed the investment community sees this story so differently from me. But they're right, and I'm wrong!