To: DRRISK who wrote (8422 ) 1/18/1998 10:31:00 PM From: Douglas V. Fant Respond to of 13925
DRRISK, There's a saying in Spanish: "A dios rogando y con el mazo dando", which means "Trust God, but keep your powder dry". That's our situation here. Keep a healthy chunk of your available funds in cash- but assuming that one is willing to undergo a little risk, then Sim Wong Hoo looks like he has this Company pointed in the right direction. Will CREAF go up three points tomorrow? I don't know. In a week? Month? I do not know. But I'd bet that CREAF in 18 months will be a whole lot higher in price than it is now. We need to work through Asian problems first, and the US economy was going back into traditional growth ranges in the 2.5%-3.0% range. Will we dip before we start a sustained uptrend? We might. But I intend to ride CREAF throught he whole period since I do not know when the uptrend will start. All I can say for sure is that a lot of tech stocks have improving technical pictures, in anticipation of what will be said about the future earnings streams this week by the barrage of companies reporting earnings. I'm guessing that while growth will slow moving forward,that it will not cease. For every Korean manufacturer that stumbles, there will be say a Taiwanese manufacturer who will use the situation to improve their competitive position. That "jockeying for position" will ameliorate the slowdown in growth. The semiconductor equipment demand forecast which I referenced here last night is an example of this. And realistically, if quality computers can be made for under US $1,000 /unit, I see an increase in peripheral sales for two reasons: one the low cost computers will want quality peripherals in order to distinguish their product from others; and two the sheer volume of computers that will be sold..... Either or both trends should help CREAF going forward... Sincerely, Doug F.