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Non-Tech : The Brazil Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: THE ANT who wrote (1878)2/1/2019 5:46:46 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2508
 
The performance of Brazilian asset prices so far in 2019 has been exceptional.

But, although the importance of external factors to the dynamic of Brazilian assets is well known, it is often forgotten. We conclude that most, if not all, of the improvement in Brazilian assets in January could be related to external factors rather than factors specific to Brazil.

This could represent both a problem and an opportunity, in our view. We see a potential opportunity because there could be room for additional improvement if the country delivers on pension reform, privatizations, and a short-term fiscal adjustment.

The danger, in our view, is if Brazil does not take advantage of the positive global environment to do the fiscal adjustment in order to be better prepared for a rainy day. As history shows, the favorable view of international investors toward Brazil will not last forever.



Sourve; Mauricio Molan
Head of Macro Research na Santander Brasil



To: THE ANT who wrote (1878)2/3/2019 1:51:38 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2508
 
Brazil Senate Chooses Pro-Reform Backbencher as Its Speaker

potentially boosting President Jair Bolsonaro’s reformist agenda but leaving questions over the administration’s strength in the upper house.

By Maria Luiza Rabello and Samy Adghirni

February 3, 2019, 1:44 AM GMT+3

New Senate chief is of same DEM party as lower house speaker

Two pro-business speakers in place but majority uncertainty

Brazilian senators chose a pro-government backbencher as their chief on Saturday, potentially boosting President Jair Bolsonaro’s reformist agenda but leaving questions over the administration’s strength in the upper house.


Davi Alcolumbre, a 41 year-old, little-known legislator of the pro-business DEM party, won with only a one-vote margin, after a tumultuous debate that lasted more than 24 hours. The front-runner, veteran Senator Renan Calheiros of the MDB party, the Senate’s largest, withdrew his candidacy in the last minute. In the lower house, Rodrigo Maia of the same DEM party on Friday won a third consecutive term as speaker.

While Alcolumbre has declared his support for Bolsonaro’s economic agenda, his acrimonious victory and lack of leadership experience raise questions about his ability to push the reform bills, including a much-awaited pension overhaul, in practice. There are also questions as to what extent pro-Calheiros legislators will remain loyal to the government.

"It’s easier for the government to negotiate with Davi than with Renan," said Juliano Griebeler, a Brasilia-based analyst with BMJ consultancy. "But the election of Davi certainly means opposition from Renan, who until now was open to dialog with the government."

Brazil’s lower house and Senate speakers wield considerable influence, including the power to decide which bills are voted and when. While the result in the chamber of deputies is not entirely surprising, the outcome in the Senate was a surprise.

Maia, a trained economist who worked briefly in banking before turning to politics, has said he’s capable of approving contentious reforms including the pension overhaul. While Maia wasn’t officially backed by Bolsonaro, he was endorsed by the president’s PSL party together with roughly a dozen others.

Bolsonaro’s most immediate challenge is to forge a working majority in a Congress with around two dozen parties. His own PSL party has only 4 out of 81 Senate seats. While several parties have ensured the government their support, Bolsonaro has no formal coalition to count on. Maia said on Friday the government may not attain any time soon the necessary majority to approve a pension reform investors see as essential to narrow a gaping budget deficit. The proposal stands a 30 percent chance of not being approved, according to Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.



To: THE ANT who wrote (1878)3/30/2019 7:26:13 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2508
 
Capital markets: Brazil’s unusual recovery

By: Rob Dwyer Published on:

Friday, March 08, 2019

Monetary policy is now much more effective in Brazil and it’s having some interesting consequences.

Brazil’s latest GDP figures were surprisingly bad: the economy expanded by just 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, slowing from (a revised) 0.5% in the previous quarter. The Brazilian economy grew just 1.1% in 2018 and it is officially the slowest recovery from recession in Brazilian history – odd considering the slack created by the biggest-ever contraction.

Brazil’s recovery is unusual in other ways, too. Take international investors: usually the first to enter a country after a recession are the financial flows, with allocations of funds into public equity and the fixed income markets. The flows are usually more responsive to signs of renewed growth than other forms of investment – such as foreign direct investment (FDI) – that need to be more convinced of the robustness of a turnaround given the difficulty and expense of reversing such investments.

But in this cycle FDI has been performing better than expected – more than covering the country’s modest current account deficit – and the more speculative financial flows haven’t materialized.

Reticence

Some local bankers are perplexed by the international investors’ reticence. The international media, they say, are to blame for overplaying the portrayal of president Bolsonaro during his election campaign, though even they admit his first couple of months haven’t been reassuring from the point of view of establishing his ability to govern (his antics during carnival creating the first use of the term ‘golden showers’ in many ‘non-specialist’ publications – and now we can add Euromoney to that list too).

The usual explanation given locally and internationally for the caution being displayed by international investors centres on the future of pensions reform. Once that is passed – or it is clear that it will be passed – these investors will be reassured and reallocate to Brazilian assets. IPOs and follow-ons will come to market and we will have lift-off.

I can’t see any reason why the spread has collapsed 140bp for credits when nothing has essentially changed other than the benchmark rate
- Private banker

However, that hypothesis may be superficial. The reforms are important – incredibly so – but Brazil has a track record of walking away from ledges when they get to them. Given the importance of this reform – the country will be effectively insolvent if there is zero reform – something will almost certainly get done. One banker described Temer’s previous reform that saved about R$500 billion over ten years as the “bid” and the new Bolsonaro reform that is equal to R$1.3 trillion as the “ask”. The result will be somewhere between the two and he thinks anywhere over the midpoint of the two will be seen as a win by the markets.

Given this widespread expectation of some reform going ahead, why are the international investors waiting? Well, it could be that valuations have simply run ahead to the point where it’s not a very good entry point. The Bovespa has surged during the past couple of years – more than doubling to close in on 100,000. There are many factors to that run – such as the end of the recession and increased confidence about the much-needed structural reforms – but an important element has been the migration of local investments towards risk assets. This positional effect alone has been a strong driver of equity valuations.

The Brazilian benchmark interest rate is now at historic lows – and given those low GDP numbers the new president of the central bank, Roberto Campos Neto (confirmed in February), may well lower it below the level of 6.5%. That will increase the migration of money out of government debt and into equities, the multi-mercardos and corporate credit.

Slow recovery

With the Bovespa being pushed so far, so quickly, international investors may well be struggling to make a bottom-up investment case for stocks – especially as the slow nature of the recovery means that earnings are unlikely to spike in the near term.

It’s a similar problem in fixed income. Spreads on corporate credit have tightened considerably in the past couple of years as the Selic came down. One private banker said that he believes the current prices are “frothy” and is underweight the sector “as I can’t see any reason why the spread has collapsed 140bp for credits when nothing has essentially changed other than the benchmark rate”. If some locals are looking and not seeing value, why would it be the time for international investors to jump back into Brazil?

So the short-term return dynamics don’t look great. But the longer-term view is more constructive and is the reason why those FDI flows are preceding the financial this time around.

Again the story started two years ago – with the Temer administration. Arguably the reform to the financing rate of the state’s development bank was the most important. Forcing the bank to lend at market rates has dramatically increased the effectiveness of monetary policy and could lead Selic to be cut a few times from this record-breaking trough.

The main impact has been to create equilibrium in Brazil between rent-seekers (who have had it easy for 20 years) and entrepreneurs (who have not, fighting high interest rates and bureaucracy). This is why strategic investors are coming to Brazil and the financial investors are not. It’s not pensions reform, it’s the many different consequences of the country’s new monetary policy regime.

Full article: euromoney.com
Visit euromoney.com for additional distribution rights. For more articles like this, follow us @euromoney on Twitter.



To: THE ANT who wrote (1878)5/25/2019 7:30:43 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2508
 
China fights back?

Brazil benefits.
About 66.1 million tons of China’s imported soybeans came from Brazil last year, accounting for 75 per cent of the country’s total imports. That volume was 30 per cent higher than the previous year.


The US supplied 16.6 million tons of the soybeans, down 49 per cent from a year earlier, owing to the trade spat between the two countries.

Soybean is a major source of protein for animal feeds and edible oil in China.

Last Friday, US President Donald Trump raised the tariffs on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 per cent to 25 per cent when the world’s two largest economies failed to reach a deal after months of negotiations.

To fight back, China announced on Monday that it would increase tariffs on a further US$60 billion of American products to 25 per cent from June 1.
China’s trade spat with the US created opportunities for countries like Brazil, particularly in agriculture.

At present, soybean, cotton and maize make up 70% of Brazil’s total exports, worth about US$36 billion to China.

In 10 to 12 years, processed food products are expected to represent 40 to 50% of Brazil’s exports to China, said Igor Brandao, chief of the agribusiness division at Apex-Brasil

scmp.com



To: THE ANT who wrote (1878)5/28/2019 9:14:23 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2508
 
An Economy on the Rocks? No Sweat for Brazil's Bust-Proof BanksBy
Mario Sergio Lima

May 26, 2019, 3:00 PM GMT+3 Updated on May 27, 2019, 2:46 PM GMT+3


Banks profiting from spreads, service fees and lower costs

Financial results have been positive despite worsening economy



Brazilian banks are showing their prowess in making money under any circumstance, with profits jumping even as Latin America’s largest economy fails to recover and unemployment remains stuck in the double digits.

The country’s four biggest publicly-traded banks - Itau Unibanco Holding SA, Banco Santander Brasil SA, Banco do Brasil SA and Banco Bradesco SA - completed their best quarter since 2015, according to data analysis firm Economatica. Their profits increased 17% yearly between January and March, a period marked by political turbulence, fizzling confidence and plunging growth expectations.

bloomberg.com



To: THE ANT who wrote (1878)6/6/2019 4:59:04 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2508
 
New Tech Unicorn Aims for Next-Day Delivery Anywhere in Brazil
By Ezra Fieser

June 5, 2019, 1:00 PM GMT+3 Updated on June 5, 2019, 11:16 PM GMT+3

Startup raising $150 million in new SoftBank-led funding round

Challenges include Brazil’s size, famously bad infrastructure

Latin America’s newest tech unicorn has an ambitious goal: next-day delivery to nearly anyone in Brazil. That’s no easy feat in the world’s fifth-biggest country -- where infrastructure networks lag far behind those of most developed nations.

Loggi is now valued at $1 billion, after raising $100 million this month in a funding round led by SoftBank Group Corp.’s Vision Fund, the company said Wednesday. SoftBank’s Latin America Fund is considering joining the round with an additional $50 million investment, according to the company. The cash infusion comes on the heels of a $100 million investment the Vision Fund made in the company last year.

The startup, which launched in 2014 delivering documents on the chaotic streets of Sao Paulo, is using the investment to build a team of more than 1,000 engineers as it constructs a Brazil-wide logistics service. The company currently covers about 35% of the population, and makes about 100,000 deliveries a day for clients including French retailer Carrefour SA, e-commerce giant MercadoLibre Inc. and fast-food restaurants McDonald’s Corp. and Burger King. Chief Executive Officer Fabien Mendez said the company aims to increase its coverage to 95% of the country by the end of next year and boost its delivery frequency to about 5 million a day within five years.

“Our philosophy is that we deliver anything for anyone,” Mendez said in an interview. “By the end of 2020, we want to connect all Brazilian cities. The idea is to offer next-day delivery to all Brazilians.”

Loggi will have to overcome obstacles that have made Brazil a notoriously difficult country for shippers, including poor infrastructure, crime, thick bureaucracy and sheer size. Brazil is bigger than the continental U.S. but its transportation infrastructure ranks near that of Rwanda, according to the World Economic Forum.

“When you operate in logistics in Brazil, it’s a death by a thousand cuts,” Mendez said. “The only way to leapfrog the structural barriers is through the use of technology.”

The company is opening a network of distribution centers across the country, including small warehouses in neighborhoods. It says it relies heavily on robotics, artificial intelligence and algorithms to find the most efficient route to air ship packages to those centers. The system alerts a nearby freelance courier -- around 25,000 of them deliver packages for Loggi -- to make the final drop off. The goal is to have minimal labor involved in the process, with only one set of human hands touching the package during each step of the delivery process, Mendez said.

The company is betting the country of 209 million people will rapidly adopt e-commerce. Sales in the sector are expected to rise 15% this year to about $15.5 billion, after rising 12% last year, according to Ebit|Nielsen, a research firm.

That growth has attracted other startups, including the Goldman Sachs Group Inc.-backed CargoX. Last-mile delivery companies, including Colombia’s Rappi and homegrown iFood, are also expanding in the country.

But instead of competing with other existing players, Mendez said Loggi is working with them, providing delivery services for both Rappi and iFood, as well as retailers including Amazon.com Inc. “Loggi is emerging as a key enabler for Brazil’s burgeoning gig-economy and e-commerce sector,” said Akshay Naheta, a managing partner at SoftBank.

Latin VenturesVC investments in Latin America doubled in each of the past two years

Source: LAVCA


GGV Capital, Microsoft Corp., Fifth Wall Ventures and Velt Partners joined the Vision Fund in the latest Loggi round. SoftBank’s Latin America Fund launched a $5 billion tech fund for the region this year. Already this year, SoftBank agreed to invest $1 billion in Rappi, and is said to be in talks with Brazilian lender Creditas.

Venture capital funding in Latin America has roughly doubled for each of the past two years and is on track to surpass the 2018 record of $2 billion. More than half of that funding last year went to Brazilian companies, according to the Association for Private Capital Investment in Latin America.

As Brazil’s growing population of smartphone users place more orders online, automating logistics for food and package deliveries will be essential for the economy’s growth, Hans Tung, managing partner at GGV, wrote in an email. “We are seeing this as a global trend from the U.S. and China to Latin America, Southeast Asia and India,” Tung wrote.

If it’s able to establish its service across Brazil, Loggi will look to expand into other Latin American markets, Mendez said.

The 33-year-old, who was raised in a small village in the south of France and moved to Brazil in 2010, said he plans to grow the company’s employee headcount to 1,500 people, from the current payroll of 600. The company charges sellers a delivery fee based on the weight and destination of the package, plus an insurance charge. As a private company, it doesn’t release sales figures, but Mendez said Loggi expects to turn a profit next year, and was profitable in 2017.

Mendez said the startup had no immediate plans to have an initial public offering or to be acquired. But “the plan is to get the company to be IPO-able,” he said. “We want to show exponential growth, but also the Ebitda to make ourselves attractive to the market.”

— With assistance by Giles Turner

(Updates with details of $50 million in additional funding in second paragraph, and total investment in first deck headline)



To: THE ANT who wrote (1878)6/7/2019 11:14:58 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 2508
 
Nubank

SoftBank and others are trying to place a bet on the most valuable startup in Latin America.



the deal does go through, Nubank will become the second-highest-valued fintech startup in the world, trailing only the payments provider Stripe, which was most recently valued at north of $20 billion.



That sort of valuation speaks to just how much Brazil’s startup ecosystem has grown, and how rapacious tech investors with loads of money to spend must now head to emerging markets to find undervalued startups where they can park their cash

vox.com

The digital bank N26, created in 2013, will soon be in Brazil. The institution has the first digital bank in Europe and is currently expanding to the United States , in addition to operating in 24 countries of the Old Continent.

In entering Brazil, N26 will be taking on challenger bank Nubank, which has 5 million customers, the report noted.
pymnts.com



To: THE ANT who wrote (1878)6/14/2019 5:12:39 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2508
 
The impact of electric shower in the consumption of electricity in Brazil

  • installed in more than 67% of homes
  • Accounts for 6% to 8% of the total electricity consumption
  • Are responsible for 18% of national electricity demand during peak hours
  • US$ 10 to install an electric shower heater in a home require
  • US$ 900 in electricity generation and distribution
  • Electric showers represents 30% of home electricity bill (and a third of the bill are taxes)
See presentation from the Vitae Civilis

slideplayer.com

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I am with Finteix that provides Solar Combined Heat & Power. (CHP) solution:

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Any facility that uses electricity makes use of heat too

  • Agribusiness
    • Drying
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  • Commercial (hotels for example)
    • Shower
    • Cooking
    • Ambient heating
  • Industrial Electricity big consumers
    • Mining
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