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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Green Oasis Environmental, Inc. (GRNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles A. King who wrote (8485)	1/19/1998 8:32:00 AM
From: Charles A. King	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13091

While we wait for the expected orders for GRNO units, we can speculate on reasons for these delays. It is easy for me to see reasons why time is of the essence for customers to enter orders. There is the looming expiration of the Section 29 tax credits on June 30 for all units not in place and operational. We know that Turkey has a severe energy shortage and must import much of its energy. It doesn't get along well with its neighbors and has a raging 50% inflation rate. But events of the past year or so have caused dampening of sentiment in oil bullishness. There is the crash in the economies of Southeast Asian countries which has greatly dropped the expected growth in demand for imported oil. Saudi Arabia asked for and got an increase of 10% in OPEC production. Since other OPEC members were already producing flat out, that allowed the Saudis to increase their production by 2.5 million barrels a day or so. There are new technologies that allow drillers to find new sources of oil and to drill long distances horizontally. Vast new oil reserves are being found. Warmer than usual temperatures through much of the Northeast has dampened demand for heating oil in the US. Blame it on El Nino. But there is some reason for optimism that conditions can turn around. TOKYO (January 19, 1998 02:49 a.m. EST nando.net) - Asian stock markets were on a rampage on Monday, fueled by optimism that the worst of the region's financial crisis may be over, brokers said. www2.nando.net TOKYO (January 18, 1998 9:19 p.m. EST nando.net) - U.S., Japanese and European financial authorities are mulling the creation of a new global body that would guarantee state and private-sector debts of countries in economic crisis, it was reported Sunday. www2.nando.net DUBAI (January 18, 1998 12:43 p.m. EST nando.net) - Gulf Arab states have begun to try to fight against a slide in world oil prices that could bite seriously into the region's economy this year. www2.nando.net In this week's Barrons, Alan Abelson quotes an oil service industry expert, Matt Simmons, who claims that the International Energy Agency, which is supposed to be the ultimate source of information on global energy supply and demand, constantly overestimates supply and underestimates demand and is leading the world into another global energy shock. The IEA was set up after the first oil shock in 1973 to help avoid any more future oil shocks. But the agency continually publishes optimistic estimates and buries its eventual corrections in mountains of statistics. The only way to uncover these mistakes is to slog through these statistics and compare them with the original estimates. Since Simmons vehemently disagrees with these estimates, he has the motivation to dig for the evidence of those mistakes. For example, he says last year the IEA's estimate for world wide oil supply was 45.6 million barrels a day. After 11 months and 6 different corrections, that number became 44.1, at drop of 1.5 million barrels a day. Between May and December, the correction became 2 million barrels a day which reflects the rosy optimism of the IEA and the oil companies that supply the data. He says the world is producing oil at 95% of capacity. While massive new oil reserves are being found around the Caspian Sea and elsewhere in central Asia, in deep water off West Africa, Brazil, and the Gulf of Mexico, they are years removed from coming on line. Simmons doesn't buy the argument that Southeast Asia is dropping its oil demand. He says over the next 5 years its requirements will grow by about 10 to 17 million barrels. Meanwhile depletion eats constantly at the world's reserves, dropping production from old fields by 3 million barrels a day every year which adds up to 15 million barrels a day over the next 5 years. He says the most conservative estimate of required growth in oil supply over the next 5 years is 25 million barrels a day which equals another OPEC. Needless to say, Simmons is a raging bull on the oil service industry. Sorry to say, I can't copy the article and it is a paid subscription deal, so you'll have to take my word for it or go get your own copy. Charles