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To: Zardoz who wrote (6262)1/19/1998 7:11:00 AM
From: PaulM  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116790
 
Hutch, nice post, I agree with most what you said. Japan has to die in order for it to resurrect. I too suspect we'll see a run on the yen.

But I'm not sure about everything else.

First, Japan has every incentive to take the U.S. down with it along the way and the ability to do it as well. A political status quo is currently preventing this. But then Japan isn't desperate enough yet.

Second, POG has indeed followed the dollar as of late but I suspect we differ on the reason. The price of a dollar vs. a franc, a DM or a yen has no intrinsic bearing POG vs. the dollar.

Third, I don't expect POG to go much lower than $280 for a variety of reasons. But now it's work time. Good luck.



To: Zardoz who wrote (6262)1/19/1998 9:51:00 AM
From: Dwight Taylor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116790
 
Hutch-- I agree with your assesment that POG will decline due to additional bank failures. As the dollar strengthens US manufacturers compete against Asian imports. Eroding US profits leads to talk of protectionism. Which is disasterous. The Smoot-Hawley Tarrif bill of 1930 was a contributor to the Great Depression.


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