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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: qdog who wrote (6738)	1/19/1998 9:54:00 AM
From: sand wedge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11888

The following is a series of posts which portray another sobering view .... I would be interested to hear this threads comments. Sorry for the extra long post but this guy puts some interesting things forth and seems to echo some of the comments heard here. Needless to say he was trashed for his efforts, maybe if he prefaced his comments with his vote for where the party should be held.......... Subject: Re:Oil Estimates Date: Sat, Jan 17, 1998 09:27 EST From: Andmoragin Message-id: The fact that AOL "lost" posts for multiple days made some of my prior comments redundant but I'm happy to respond to a couple questions. UNC ..... Yes, I agree that Wall Street places value on potential reserves. It tends to occur in a very rational controlled manner where there is substantive information well communicated and understood within the investment community. Quite a difference from what we see here with the BS press releases from the Mill guys. Wall Street does not except in extremely unusual situations put money on speculation as extreme as AIPN. When it does the result is usually a big bust when the story unravels. Look at the AKSEF speculation a couple years ago even when true proved reserves existed. Or look at the TRGC situation in Colombia. Right now the AIPN speculation is so extreme that "believers" are betting on reserves of over 3 - 4 billion being proved. Now that many understand and admit the growing share dilution problem the ante has been raised on reserves from 1 billion to 3-4 billion. It will take years and hundreds of millions in capital to ever make this a reality. A quick scan of the new s3 shows the company documenting the lack of reserves and risks; not sure I recall that in prior filings. They must also be concerned that this speculation which their PR firm helped induce is getting "out of control". Brede ... "What ever happened to "keep it simple", "oil industry norms", and simple efficient methods of the private sector?" Proving reserves is not simple nor is the analysis that goes into determining whether a company is willing to risk the capital just to drill one well. "industry norms"???? There are many BUT I strongly disagree that this "discounting" BS is one of them. Mill would like you to believe that ..... and many of you have bought into it .... I don't ..... tell Gary to call it FUDGE factor please. It does make the extreme "possible reserves" number sound believable to many to say it has been discounted doesn't it?? But that's all ..... the resulting huge "discounted, possible, recoverable reserves" is still too much to swallow. BTW the history of oil exploration is full of large promising structures in the vicinity of major production that are drilled and turn out DRY. George Subject: Prediction Date: Sat, Jan 17, 1998 11:20 EST From: Andmoragin Message-id: Here is a sure bet ---- so why are people getting "excited" in anticipation of this?? Prediction --- AIPN will eventually issue a press release indicating positive results of seismic interpretation. It might even be next week. It would be interesting to see how many of you all agree that we are waiting for something that we already KNOW the outcome of. If anyone disagrees then YOU probably have reason to get excited about this. Nobody else should. Yes, the stock will probably go up for a brief period of time. BUT, the reality is that this will be another press release that is not meaningful. For those who act interested in industry norms, it is NOT normal for a company to publicize the fact that they are conducting seismic analysis. That is unless they are trying to USE the press to stimulate interest. So since it so obvious that AIPN and Mill are publicizing seismic analysis with the INTENT of generating positive feelings then we CAN BE 100% CONFIDENT that when they ORCHESTRATE the announcement it will be positive news. I think it would be impossible NOT to find positive things you could say about a seismic study. SO they will! Yep, there will be a seismic study press release. Mill will make sure it says a lot of things that sound good but you can be assured that it will not be meaningful information. A positive tiny step perhaps, after all, wells don't even get conceived unless there is a good seismic target indicated. One thing Mill will not be able to control or put spin on is the outcome of drilling results. Look at TRGC for a company trying to do this and now in bankruptcy proceedings. Not even Mill would try this. Seismic "spin" is safe and easy ---- you can BET that a positive release is coming. But I wouldn't plan a party because of it. George, who suggests everyone "party" in Long Beach and take a tour of the beautiful Wilmington oil field. It will be educational and you might be able to try a tax deduction for your expenses.

To: qdog who wrote (6738)	1/19/1998 10:45:00 AM
From: DRRISK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11888

Qdog, The who is right scenario has caused my paranoid traits to wonder all weekend. If you consider that the data reported is supplied, I gather, by the Industry and the revisions to that data come from the real consumption numbers and they always seem to be up. Then I ponder are we talking about the fox in the Hen house. If we believe that alternative energy is a bad thing for the oil companies and they are not all that interested in people pouring resourses into R&D on this, then how do you prevent this R&D? The world awash in oil with profitable price and abundance that keeps R&D complacent? But the dollars that the Majors are pouring into the Exploration side of their businesses are from what I gather enormous with no signs of cut back. Alternatively, the Car Companies are also pouring R&D into cars that run on anything but oil. I wonder if they know something? I bet that the Oil Majors are up to something and that it will not mean lower oil prices. DrRisk