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Technology Stocks : Microsoft - When to short -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (70)	1/23/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Respond to of 96

I'm no longer planning on buying puts again--after watching this run back up toward 140, and with just too much good news I'm off to find something better. Also, I thought about MSFT's revenue numbers, and whether they can continue to grow, and I am not so sure anymore that they will start to slow down. Of course it all depends on whether or not they can put enough into W98 to make people upgrade, multi monitor support will probably be all that I need to switch. As far as NT--there don't happen to be any NT machines in my building so what the hell do I know about it? Anyway, after looking at revenues again, I guess it really doesn't take too much per customer for Microsoft to continue to grow its revenues--and there are so many customers... No way in hell would I be long this stock, if they blow the release of 98 or NT5 it'll be a huge disaster, one that could very well drag the whole market down. But what are the chances? Why Microsoft has probably already got a working W98 with the browser stripped out!

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (70)	1/25/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: K. M. Strickler	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 96

I thought that Bill Gates was on the news announcing that MSFT would be involved in the desk top units. I have seen Windows CE advertized for the palmtops, so it will be interesting as to what happens. I can't help but agree with you on not knowing where MSFT will stop. I agree with your analogy on the size of the software 'base'. I've always referred to that as 'critical mass' and it really doesn't matter what the industry is. Once that 'mass' is achieved, the business seems to be impervious to bad news! Look at GM, Ford, Chrysler, ADM and some of the others (Tobacco) and you see what I mean. It isn't infallible if you look at the destruction of an industry from the inside (steel, railroad, AT&T), you have to get out.