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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (82634)

2/20/2019 11:22:28 PM

From: Return to Sender

Respond to of 95479

60% Upside Volume on the NYSE - 52% Upside Volume on the NASDAQ:

wsj.com

Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Notice to readers: As of 3/3/11, Closing ARMS Index (TRIN) calculation is based on composite data. Click here for historical data prior to 3/3/11.

NYSE	Latest close	Previous close	Week ago
Issues traded	3,049	3,039	3,026
Advances	1,784	1,879	1,907
Declines	1,162	1,068	1,035
Unchanged	103	92	84
New highs	99	122	87
New lows	7	10	5
Adv. volume*	553,530,652	529,308,010	506,342,031
Decl. volume*	363,545,019	287,206,579	297,294,243
Total volume*	930,375,617	836,752,760	813,842,845
Closing tick	-246	-6	+212
Closing Arms (TRIN)†	0.99	0.98	1.04
Block trades*	7,413	7,216	7,113
Adv. volume	2,271,892,167	2,182,181,950	2,269,786,873
Decl. volume	1,460,878,324	1,212,480,272	1,279,675,481
Total volume	3,784,337,406	3,475,770,432	3,603,556,014
Nasdaq	Latest close	Previous close	Week ago
Issues traded	3,216	3,179	3,176
Advances	1,684	1,905	1,798
Declines	1,433	1,173	1,265
Unchanged	99	101	113
New highs	103	103	74
New lows	22	27	21
Closing tick	-726	+478	+280
Closing Arms (TRIN)†	0.97	1.14	0.91
Block trades	8,713	8,217	9,034
Adv. volume	1,107,025,473	1,197,614,230	1,231,993,113
Decl. volume	917,392,706	838,480,263	784,745,956
Total volume	2,145,792,874	2,068,175,364	2,057,752,153
NYSE American	Latest close	Previous close	Week ago
Issues traded	299	297	298
Advances	123	188	160
Declines	165	92	125
Unchanged	11	17	13
New highs	6	10	6
New lows	1	5	3
Adv. volume*	9,142,956	11,418,592	4,786,436
Decl. volume*	6,140,310	2,963,538	5,395,741
Total volume*	15,447,602	15,526,012	10,489,149
Closing tick	-93	+25	+21
Closing Arms (TRIN)†	0.52	0.46	1.67
Block trades*	174	171	96
Adv. volume	85,653,170	110,465,720	37,603,737
Decl. volume	59,834,738	24,936,607	49,091,992
Total volume	146,420,844	145,068,090	90,421,530
NYSE Arca	Latest close	Previous close	Week ago
Issues traded	1,574	1,575	1,572
Advances	1,083	1,286	943
Declines	453	277	595
Unchanged	38	12	34
New highs	56	81	27
New lows	10	14	10
Adv. volume*	174,127,966	200,869,049	104,944,606
Decl. volume*	55,865,741	34,164,654	107,130,986
Total volume*	231,104,030	235,305,771	214,020,042
Closing tick	-45	-2	-24
Closing Arms (TRIN)†	0.77	0.73	1.47
Block trades*	1,322	1,399	1,472
Adv. volume	829,103,239	956,437,535	550,431,873
Decl. volume	268,132,351	150,297,998	508,956,335
Total volume	1,109,210,723	1,109,478,163	1,072,359,032

*Primary market NYSE, NYSE American or NYSE Arca only. †Compares the ratio of advancing to declining issues with the ratio of volume of shares rising and falling. Arms Index or TRIN = (advancing issues / declining issues) / (composite volume of advancing issues / composite volume of declining issues.) Generally, an Arms of less than 1.00 indicates buying demand; above 1.00 indicates selling pressure.

To: Sam who wrote (82634)	2/26/2019 12:24:49 AM
From: Sam	4 Recommendations Recommended By Donald Wennerstrom JCnieuwenj oldbeachlvr Return to Sender Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95479

DRAM Revenue Took a Turn for the Worse in 4Q18; Suppliers Declining in Profitability, Says TrendForce Published Feb.25 2019,14:17 PM (GMT+8) Investigations by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, show that DRAM quotes have taken a turn for the worse in 4Q18, causing the total revenue in the DRAM industry to fall. Due to high inventory levels on the demand end, purchases have become few and little, in turn causing a sales bit decline QoQ for most DRAM vendors. Under this double decline of both quantity and price, the global DRAM revenue fell by 18.3% QoQ in 4Q18. DRAMeXchange pointed out that contract prices continued to fall in January 2019. In view of the pricings by first-tier PC-OEMs, the average prices of mainstream 8GB modules have descended to US$50 for January, and will continue their descent through the monthly deals of February and March, with an estimated decline of 20-25% for the first quarter overall. Additionally, the production bit levels of DRAM suppliers in 4Q18 were far above sales bit levels, intensifying inventory pressure. Thus suppliers will redouble their efforts on pricing strategies to accelerate inventory closeouts. From a revenue standpoint, most suppliers are fated to meet the inescapable quarterly decline. Taking the brunt of the sharp decline of server DRAM shipments, industry giant Samsung has seen the steepest sales bit decline in the fourth quarter among the top three vendors, with its revenue falling by 25.7% QoQ to US$9.45 billion, and its revenue market share retreating to 41.3%. SK Hynix sales bit, however, only saw a drop of around 2%, thus taking a softer fall in revenue compared to Samsung: 12.3% QoQ to US$7.14 billion. Its revenue market share rose above the 30% mark, landing at 31.2%. Micron still held on to third place, with its revenue coming to US$5.37 billion, thanks to its adoption of more flexible shipment strategies. Although this was a drop of 9.2% QoQ, Micron still performed the best out of the top three suppliers, its revenue market share rising to 23.5%. DRAMeXchange estimates that Samsung, faced with the double pressure of its quickly eroding revenue share and rather high inventory levels, will be more proactive in its pricing strategies to avoid continual share shrinkage. Looking at supplier profitability, the global price drop in 4Q18 form the beginning of the end for peaking revenues, and OPMs everywhere exhibited a decline. The supplier giant Samsung made the least effort to lower prices and drive sales, which, along with the steadily increasing allocation of 1Ynms, caused only a slight OPM drop from 70% to 66%. However, though pricings took a turn for the worse in the fourth quarter, DRAM production still enjoyed a gross margin of around 80%, which demonstrates that Samsung still has an arrow in its quiver to carry out more flexible pricing strategies. SK Hynix completed a large number of shipments in the fourth quarter, sacrificing their profitability in the process. SK Hynix’s OPM fell from 66% in 3Q18 to 58% in 4Q18. Micron, however, released a fiscal report spanning from September to November - and thus did not show a price fall to the extent of those calculated by Korean suppliers, which spanned from October to December – showing a mere drop of OPM from 62% to 58%. Looking towards 1Q19, suppliers will expect a further shrinkage in potential profits from the increasingly dramatic drop in prices. On the technological front, with Samsung’s expansion of its wafer production capacity on Line 17 and the raising of the DRAM production on the second floor of the Pyeongtaek plant, they have achieved their 2018 year-end target of a combined 1X+1Ynm production allocation of 70%. Although there are no plans on wafer production increase for the Pyeongtaek plant, Line 17 and the second floor Pyeongtaek plant will still continue their transition into 1Ynm, albeit one slowed by the current market. As for SK Hynix, 1Xnm yield rates have gotten on track, and the newly constructed second 12-inch wafer fab in Wuxi has begun contributing to output for the first half of this year. However, they won’t get too active on increasing wafer production in the Wuxi fab due to the US-China trade dispute. Regarding Micron, its subsidiary Micron Memory Taiwan (formerly Rexchip) has already completed the transition to 1Xnm production, and will be directly transitioning into 1Znm production, but substantial contributions will have to wait until 2020. Micron Technology Taiwan (formerly Inotera) has already begun the switch from 20nm to 1Xnm in the second quarter last year, and will begin to move on to 1Ynm in the first half of this year and gradually increase its percentage. With respect to Taiwan-based suppliers, due to the weakening PC DRAM market, Nanya recorded a 20% fall in sales bit performance along with a huge drop of 30.8% QoQ in revenue for the fourth quarter. DDR4, which had a better gross margin, took up a smaller fraction in shipments – this, along with the global decline in quotes, caused OPM to shrink from 51.0% to 41.8%. It is feared that profitability will continue to shrink amidst rising depreciation and amortization expenses and the decreasing cost benefit of the 20nm process. Powerchip’s DRAM revenue rose by 10.3% QoQ if the calculation excludes its DRAM foundry business. If this part of the revenue were included, then the result would actually be a nearly double-digit decline from the previous quarter. As for Winbond, its DRAM revenue fell by 16.8% QoQ. The price cuts that Winbond made were relatively modest within the industry, averaging less than 5% QoQ. However, the weak overall demand dragged down the company’s sales bit, which decreased by more than 10% QoQ.