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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (82636)	2/21/2019 7:16:03 PM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 95564

This is the first time I've paid relatively close attention to the NAND industry during a downturn. My take on H2 2018 was that things are getting awful, manufacturing output continues to increase in front of a downturn in demand (processor shortage, iPhone slump, China dispute, cloud inventory correction, etc.). Didn't most NAND makers significantly increase inventory in Q4? I seem to recall SK's inventory went from 4 weeks in Q3 up to 9 weeks in Q4. Those already manufactured chips have to go somewhere, and bit demand in Q1 2019 is going DOWN from Q4 2018. Total NAND Flash revenue will be dragged down by both falling unit prices and falling demand AND increased production, right? The NAND makers can slow future projects, but I think Q1 2019 still will show the expansion and technological production growth that was planned in mid-2017. The "cuts" to capital spending were supposed to affect Q3 2019 on, as I recall. So with too much memory inventory in stock, bit demand declining, and production still ramping.....don't prices need to come crashing down to hell to clear out all the excess unneeded inventory? Do you guys think Q4 2018 was the share price bottom? It seems to me like most of the NAND makers are going to be puking blood by Q2, Q3 2019. THAT may be the blood in the streets. As I said this is my first time to watch a downcycle closely, but my hunch is the "news" is going to get A LOT worse before it shows a bottom. We still don't see 512GB SSD laptops in the discount sections, and cheap cheap cheap NAND products, like discount cell phones with 128GB of memory. Doesn't the industry need those things to clear out the excess inventory?