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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (13247)	1/19/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 18056

George, welcome to the Mohan thread. I do not think that the Nikkei low will hold, unless of course, the LDP decides to be serious with stimulating their economy. The other markets have been so decimated it is difficult to say. Take Korea at about 350 (which was roughly the low) they have declined almost 80% from the high (since these are Won denominated and the won is down a good 50%), sure, the Korean market could get hit again with a liquidity crisis and even go under 300, but for that we need the collapse of one of the major chaebols. Samsung has started to sell off some irrelevant divisions, if the others do the same and start and concentrate each in what they are particularly good at, then we might have seen the bottom, but if one of tha Chaebols has a major misteps or cannot roll over some of their short term debt, or due to shortage of funds cannot keep up with the competition, or any one of these ifs, could cause a fragile and very illiquid market to fall apart. Mind you, the Rally last night was on less than 40 million shares, so there is not much depth and solidity here. Zeev

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (13247)	1/19/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Jyoti sharma	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

George: I have also been watching Asia since oct. I will offer my two cents and hope others will provide a contrary point of view. If Japan does not make new lows, Korea , Malyasia, Thailand are not likely to make new lows. All of these countries have a grip on their problems and will be a lot higher by the end of this year. I also expect their currencies to bounce back another 20-30%. Indonesia is a special case and has the maximum risk. Suharto will not follow thru on IMF dictated reforms. He is not going to hurt his children. If Japan goes all bets are off. Even US market will tank and october correction will look like a picnic. IMO this will not happen. Japanese are very smart people and the govt will do whatever needs to done to keep their markets up. China is not likely to devalue till later this year and Hong Kong peg will hold. I would appreciate other predictions. Good investing Jyoti