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To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (6294)1/19/1998 6:34:00 PM
From: PaulM  Respond to of 116786
 
MB - when I said "implications" I meant for the price of gold. It seems to me that if the theory is true the CB's want to keep gold below $350 for only a very short time (i.e. to get really cheap oil for a short while, hopefully long enough for the worst of the Asai thing to pass). They wouldn't want under $350 gold to last long because that would reduce mine supply in which case the depressed gold priced game becomes very hard to play. In other words low, but not too low.

If all the above is true we wouldn't expect gold to go much lower and we'd expect to see $350 in short order. ( I pick $350 because that's cost of production for the highest cost producers, S. Africa).

We'd expect to see volatile fits and starts with gold wanting to go there very fast but the CB's makign sure it gets there more slowly.

We'd expect it ti stay around $350 until....

until...a day (who knows when) when the POG explodes as the market goes into backwardation as a physcial gold shortage ensues and the low gold price game can no longer be played.

By the way, these are just some intriguing thoughts. Not taking myself that seriously here.



To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (6294)1/20/1998 7:32:00 AM
From: Gary H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116786
 
MB and Paul, The method of polarizing money has it's answer in Greenspans simple statement which for us has no simple solution IMO.

"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against
gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the `hidden'
confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious
process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps
this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism
toward the gold standard."
Alan Greenspan (1966)

Will there come a point in time when gold will be desireable to the "statists"? What will the conditions be?