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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas A Watson who wrote (1122698)	3/4/2019 3:37:54 PM
From: Heywood40	Respond to of 1575834

Twatson fight!

To: Thomas A Watson who wrote (1122698)	3/5/2019 12:39:58 PM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575834

My specific area was 3 to 6 Exactly what model (GFS / European / other) and when (run time) claimed 3-6 in your area? ....also, give me your exact location....you said the last run of the model........NO way was it 3-6 inches on Saturday BEFORE the meaningful snow began. The Accuweather forecast had it 3-6 in your area (due to mixing) early on Friday BEFORE the later runs moved the track about 70 miles further south. By Saturday, you were in the 6-10/6-12 range. The prediction in my area moved DOWN from 6-8 to 3-6. We got 4 inches. ....see the last 4 twitter periscopes Bernie did on this storm for the progression of the models and forecasts https://twitter.com/AccuRayno?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor And anyone with any modeling experience knows that for 24 hrs it a dice throw ..total BS..........it usually takes about 3-4 days for a system crossing the west coast to cross the east coast and give us its weather.........once systems are on shore in the west, there are sufficient observations/data to provide reasonably good initial conditions for the models to work on. Before that, it is indeed a crap shoot. However, at 3 days, the models are not accurate enough to predict the near exact track of the system required to make a reasonably accurate prediction of something like snow fall totals. However by early Saturday, the later model runs moved the track about 75 miles further south putting you in the higher 6-12 inch predicted range. They even claimed south central and eastern Conn. would see the higher amounts because of the intensifying system the model predicted as it moved off shore...........you really have no clue. And only idiots think that models that cannot even predict the past are science that can predict the decades ahead. What are you babbling about?. I said don't conflate short term weather models with long term climate forecasts. models have a multiplying error for every time slice. is that some sort of revelation on your part?...yeah....that's why model runs one day out are usually better than those 2 days out and much better than those out 3 or more days out And today anyone can buy a 10,000 PassMark computer for less than 200 bucks. One can get a 6000+ PassMark computer for less than 120 and even less than 100 is you are careful. more irrelevant techno babble from you I have worked with modeling and putting together computer systems to test and verify models. really?.....yet you know next to nothing about short term weather models I no longer can take you seriously. For whatever reason, you are right on climate change and long range climate models but have little to no understanding of short term weather models. I caution the board about this guy.