To: locogringo who wrote (1123519 ) 3/8/2019 9:03:15 AM From: sylvester80 1 RecommendationRecommended By Celtictrader
Respond to of 1575517 LOSING : How Trump is fueling the trade deficit he hates to a 10-year high Krystal Hu Reporter Yahoo Finance • March 6, 2019 U.S. trade deficit rises to $621B, highest in 10 years The U.S. trade deficit jumped to its highest level in 10 years, according to a U.S. Department of Commerce report on Wednesday. Despite President Donald Trump’s repeated promise to shrink trade deficits, it leaped by 12.2% to $621 billion in 2018, after hitting a record high during his first year in office. Although the strengthening dollar and slowing economic growth in some regions contribute to the widening deficits, the record number may also partly be the president's own making— thanks to the trade tension he started with major trading partners including China and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017. The real goods deficit in December reached $91.6 billion — its highest level since 1994. The recent widening in the deficit has been driven in part by weakening exports, according to Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan. Nominal goods exports to China tanked by 33% year-over-year in December, likely as a result of China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S. and China have been going through months of tough negotiations, during which Trump vowed to reduce the trade deficit between the world’s two largest economies. It’s reported that both sides are close to reaching a deal that could include China’s purchase of more than $100 billion worth of U.S. goods every year, including agricultural and energy products. The tax cuts may also contribute to the jump in trade deficit. Derek Scissors, resident scholar at American Enterprise Institute calculates the tax cuts could boost the trade deficit by $200 billion. Screenshot/ JP Morgan More As historical data shows, trade deficits usually jump following tax cuts, like the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts under President George W. Bush, and President Ronald Reagan’s cuts in the early 1980s. This is because increased income is likely to bring more consumption, which fuels the need for foreign goods, a fundamental of the trade deficit. Harvard Kennedy School professor Jeffrey Frankel warned in January 2018 that “the increase in spending afforded by tax cuts goes entirely, rather than only partly, into the current-account deficit”.Trade deficit isn’s always bad (Screenshot/JP Morgan) More Trump has been especially vocal about lowering the deficit gap, citing it as a failure of previous trade policy. He called the trade deficit “unacceptable.” “We are going to start whittling that down, and as fast as possible,” Trump said after his trip to Asia in November 2017 . While Trump often blames poor trade agreements for the trade deficit, that may not be the whole story. The trade deficit isn't necessarily a bad thing, and it's an oversimplification to look at the deficit without putting it into the context of the economy. Part of the gap is caused by countries that use unfair trade policies to dump goods in the U.S, but it has a lot to do with the strong consumer culture and low savings rates since the 1970s, which create robust demand for foreign goods. A BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report in 2018 also expects the share of the trade deficit in GDP to grow 0.2 percentage points by 2020. Trump has taken measures to fight trade deficits, including urging companies to manufacture in the U.S., and renegotiating trade deals with partners like the EU and China. Economists see the fundamental issue, in the long run, is what happens internally: getting spending in line with saving as a nation. “It’s very hard to fix the trade deficit if you don’t fix your borrowing problem,” Ethan Harris, head of global economics at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, told Yahoo Finance. “It’s about having discipline budget in the government, keeping the deficit small, and encouraging family savings so we can fund ourselves internally.”