To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (16328 ) 1/19/1998 10:51:00 PM From: Peach Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27012
Sonny, I don't come close to having John's knowledge about investing/trading but I do know Year 2000 issues. BTW, I saw the CNBC show you have been discussing. My comments on the analyst's recommendations: Peoplesoft - Yes, they will be swamped and will have work after the year 2000. However, they were swamped before they ever mentioned Y2K. IMO, Y2K will NEVER be an important part of their business and won't raise their price appreciably. Their price is already too high. There are much better Y2K plays. Oracle - Not a Y2K player. However, where I work we have an Imaging System called FileNet. When I was checking to see if it is Y2K compliant, they said "yes, FileNet is compliant, but our database, Oracle, is not." They will have to upgrade the Oracle database! IMRS - Yes, that is the proper symbol that goes with the name of the company they listed. This is the only good recommendation (for 1998 - see below) the analyst made. KEA is also good, but they are also a body shop (see below). IMO, these analysts that go on TV feel they must list "good" tried and true companies or people will think they are a fool. Well, they are a fool -- the big money will be made on the wildcard niche players! FWIW, following I have cut and pasted some Y2K recommendations I sent to a friend of mine today. DISCLAIMER - Just my opinion! I recommend IMRS for a Y2K stock. I think it will go thru the roof in 1998, but will be afraid for 1999 -- it is a body shop and will be maxed out on work by 1999 -- humans can only work as fast as they can -- it won't be fast enough. I think any price around 30-31 is a major bargain for IMRS. Mid 1998-1999 will be the time for companies that license their tool products out (like ACLY and PTUS)! There will NOT be enough time for programmers to remediate the code AND there will not be programmers to hire anyway. We have NO applicants for programmer positions NOW! 1999 will also be the year for automated tool vendors like ALYD. Although I am convinced that ALYD will be taking off soon and will be up thru 2001-2! I was on a conference call with their sales staff two nights last week (they want me to hire them to remediate my code). I am convinced they have a great tool. They have gobs of contracts with BIG companies. This past week they had an intense conference in Charlotte, N.C., with all their sales people from around the world. Everyone is keyed up and loaded for bear. I told them those sales people better be resting up. The top guy said they can rest in the year 2000! Of course they won't say, but I'll bet they had good earnings this past quarter. Their top guy has sometimes been an idiot (the Reg S deal), but I think he is learning fast. They are a wild company - sort of like gunslingers in the old west. They are selling at a bargain basement price right now. You might consider trading CRYSF -- I kid you not, for the past 4 days this stock has gone up 2-2 1/2 each day and came back down before the closing bell for no reason that I can find! I may eventually recommend it for a Y2K stock. It has the added advantage of being the primo company doing the Euro dollar conversion work in Europe. I will keep an eye on it. Now, ZITL. Well, I know ZITL is a ___ stock. I also know MatriDigm has ___ management. I consider this one my gambling stock (stop laughing and take a deep breath! - I KNOW my whole portfolio is one big gamble!!!). But I am prepared to loose a few dollars on the off chance that ZITL gets even one government contract! There will be so much work to be done and no one to do it! There is so much short interest on this stock that it will shoot thru the roof and fall like a stone just like that fateful day in December 1996! That means I have to watch it like a hawk. Bummer. When it starts to fly I will probably bail at 20 - "Pigs will fly, hogs get slaughtered!" ..... Norm