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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (26846)	1/20/1998 2:14:00 AM
From: Tim McCormick	Respond to of 53903

Bug, the permabulls keep posting articles about 16mb plant closings and delays. Could this pricing crises actually accelerate crossover? What does stuff like this do to bit growth? Toshiba To Triple 64-MB DRAM Output by March 1999 TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba said today it plans to triple production of 64-megabit dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips to 10 million chips per month by March 1999 from the three million planned from March 1998. A Toshiba spokeswoman said the company expects to boost production of 64-megabit DRAMs to eight million chips per month by December 1998. Toshiba has yet to decide on capital investment for its semiconductor division in the year to March 1999, she said. In October, Toshiba said its capital investment in 1997/98 would be 170 billion yen, unchanged from the previous year. In contrast, its output of 16-megabit DRAMs will be reduced drastically from a scheduled monthly output rate of seven million chips as of March 1998 due to weakening prices, the spokeswoman said. Toshiba has not made any decision on how many 16-megabit DRAMs it will produce in the future. Game, set, match, Tim

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (26846)	1/20/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Megs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

I can't believe it! I'm agreeing with the Bug! Your right about the mentality of this business. They just keep building and building even when the market is poor so that they can capitialize when the market turns around. But, if they don't stop bringing on more and more capacity then the market will never turn around. This "maintain market share at all costs" attitude could cause the whole market to crash. I think if they stopped the building and converted to the 64Mbit the market would come back to 94-95 prices. My reason is simple, the 64Mbit is a big chip. I have one of Micron's chip cards they handed out at the annual meeting and their 64Mbit is 3 times as big as their smallest 16Mbit (93mm2 vs. 29mm2). I assume they will shrink the 64Mbit but that will take time. They had a 96mm2 16Mbit back in 1993 and it took them 4 years to get down to 29mm2. That would be a couple of years of healthy profits anyway... Meg