Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (1233)	1/20/1998 6:30:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

1. The IMF is, essentially, controlled by the US and clearly will pursue US friendly policies. 2. The IMF has screwed up in Asia and forced many otherwise decent companies into bankruptcy by slamming the domestic economy in a crude effort to stabilize the currency (which has also obviusly failed). These companies may now need to turn to foreigners (eg the US) to bail them out as the funds cannot be supplied domestically. They will need to do this at fire-sale prices which probably do not reflect the long term value of the assets (eg. you can buy a Semen Cibinong (a cement company in Indonesia) for 20% of replacement cost and a Indah Kiat (a pulp company in Indonesia), the lowest cost producer in the world, for 25% of replacement cost. 3. Does it do a country any good to have its economy run by multinationals? It may increase efficiency and so on but it prevents it from developing its own industries. 4. Why should multi-national banks be bailed out by the IMF for their staggeringly stupid lending decisions (see earlier post re: lending to Steady Safe Taxis)? Citibank gets all its money back and gets a Thai Bank (FBCB.BK) for free? There's something wrong here. 5. Is it really good for the country for the US to come into Asia, fire 50% of the staff for the sake of profit maximization back home. It's great for US but I suspect the social repercussions in Asia could be fairly unpleasant (If you want to do that in Korea then you'll need a private army as well as a team of management consultants) I say Asia should declare a debt moratorium. Wait five years and all the foreign banks will be knocking at the door again, desperate to lend to them again.

To: Stitch who wrote (1233)	1/20/1998 7:39:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

I like Tom's #1235. I'm wondering myself whether the U.S.-dominated IMF is really a good thing to have in SEA at this moment, as it may indeed be perceived as economic imperialism by the West. I have no idea what the man in the streets in K.L and elsewhere about it thinks these days. If he has profited from the before-crash situation, maybe he should not complain too loudly now? OTOH, I'm also thinking what the consequences of a moratorium by SEA countries were: Obviously, Western banks like CCI et al. sure have to take the full hit and write these loans down, taking huge charges in the next few years. But my guess is they have emerged strong enough the last couple of years to get out alive, and if not, better that they dissapear anyway for they were even more stupid than just ordinarily stupid. So the question really is IMO: Were the SEA countries better off if they declared a moratrorium now? What would immediately happen? Would it help their industries and cos. to get back on track faster, bailing out the economies more quickly? Social reforms being implemented more quickly? The concentration of capital in rather few hands (Suharto i.e.) that may then be the main local "lender of last resort", will they provide bridge fiancings and stuff and at the same time give up power? I doubt it. I'm not against a moratorium per se. But what would be the immediate consequences in the region? Folks, you guessed it. I don't see clearly. Any comments appreciated. Thomas

To: Stitch who wrote (1233)	1/20/1998 9:56:00 AM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 9980

Guys see my post # 1025 on the subject of anti-americanism in asia.

To: Stitch who wrote (1233)	1/20/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Stitch, just human nature, nothing personal i don't think. Same thing happend here in the U.S during the Iran hostage crisis,ie there were very strong 'anti-Middle East' sentiments here in the U.S. I remember this one incident in particular, I was attending the university here in the U.S at that time,one day while driving on the highway some guy threw his empty beer can(i guess the guy wan't very bright) at the hood of my car. I guess we all look alike to them rednecks,eh? Then we got the WW II,Japanese American situation, don't know what happend during the depression and the collapse of the stock market. Well I don't really think this an appropriate analogy,but what the heck.