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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (4966)	1/20/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: Chris	Respond to of 42787

ahh... i hope paul orr jones saw that post... dell is still stronger than cpq.. cpq down a bit more and still hasn't taken out the 50 ma...

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (4966)	1/20/1998 10:55:00 AM
From: Chris	Respond to of 42787

some great charts: Subject: Why the markets will continue higher... \| Previous \| Next \| Respond \| To: GROUND ZERO (537 ) From: Pete Kocmalski Monday, Jan 19 1998 3:48PM EST Reply # of 546 GZ, I noticed you got into a discussion about the ARMS index over on the Mohan thread. I have never found it useful intraday, but then I don't play that game. However, intermediate term I find that the 5-day and 13-day moving averages give excellent signals, BUT you have to know the kind of market you are in. When the 5-day exceeds 1.35 and the 13-day is above 1.20, you've generally got a very low-risk buying point. Conversely, when the numbers are below 0.75 for the 5-day and 0.85 for the 13-day, you can usually sell with impunity. The caveat in both cases is to know what kind of a market you are in. During the bull run of the past years, the market has shown the ability to keep right on rising despite getting very overbought (on the ARMS). It did this often, a sign of the market's strength. And the ARMS rarely got oversold. 10/97, 4/97, 7/96 are the exceptions--but they were all good buying points. I have posted 3 charts at webspan.net In two, I show Dynamic Gann Levels for the SP500. The 3rd chart displays the SP500 vs. the 5- & 13-day ARMS. Notice that the 5-day has gotten oversold on the ARMS 3 times recently. To me, that shows that the character of this market is changing. I have data for High/Low/Advance/Decline/UpVol/DownVol going back for years and years (@1978). The ARMS didn't even get oversold this often in 1994! That's how I use it: as an indicator when it's a layup, but otherwise to interpret the market. BTW, the plot of ARMS in the chart is limited to a range of 0.65 and 1.40, else the scale gets screwed up. For 10/27/97-11/12/97, the actual range of the 13-day was between 1.74-1.84, while for 10/27/97-10/31/97, the 5-day had a range between 2.87 and 3.13--off the chart! Pete

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (4966)	1/20/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 42787

A possible buying opportunity. Dell is already negotiating with Asian supplies to incorporate more of their components into the PC. This will lower the cost of the PC to Dell which will mean Dell can be more competative in a very competative, retail price cutting environment. Sales of PCs to the consumer went very well this Christmas. There evidently many people who want to participateon in this "PC thing" and the Internet when they see web addresses displayed by their favorite news station. So the lower prices will benefit at the very least those PC makers selling the the consumer market, but also will help them compete in the business market. Business can be focused on the cost of PCs too, particularily the smaller sized businesses. So since their new Asian supplier will be able to lower their cost, this will increase their profit margin. Now they can lower their price and stimulate PC purchases and obtain more of a slice of the maket pie. There will be a lag in time between now and when this happens in terms of financial results. But when it does, IMO it may invalidate this profit projection relative to other companies, and that is what counts, the comparison to other companies. Also, this stock price projection is implying P/E multiple expansion. This can happen only if DELL can continue to outperform their peers by a larger margin. Because with the anticipated eanrings slowdown, invetors may be willing to pay a premium for the companies that continue to outperform and deliver good earnings growth in comparison to their peers. P/E expansion also comes during the later phases of the market cycle which when it happens will be another sign that this old bull market is winding down. However, there can be periods of very good profit opportunity for the short to intermediate term investor before the start of a long term bear market arrives. IMO I expect a long topping pattern to this market before starting its long term bear phase. This topping pattern can still provide many opportunities for the short term trader. I also want to note that Dell, along with IBM, SUNW, and others, is one of the stocks that I understand have weathered the high-tech selloff by the institutions very well. This is a good sign. I think it will be a very selective stock market as far as the high-techs are concerned. Bob Graham