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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (1272)	1/20/1998 11:07:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 9980

Watch it Thomas, they may come after you <<ggg>>> <<<Good place to start any research on a country. It's maintained by our beloved CIA, I guess. They even have a home page, but didn't look no further myself.>>>

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (1272)	1/20/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: John Hunt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

<< Good place to start any research on a country. It's maintained by our beloved CIA, I guess. >> Thomas, Thanks, but I am not sure I want to get my research information from an organization employing specialists in 'dis-information'. <<< ggg >>> John

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (1272)	1/20/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Indonesian banks have been repaying distressed hard currency debt in rupiah for more than a week, a worrying development that could bring the country's financial crisis to a head, London analysts said. The repayment of dollar-denominated loans in rupiah at current rates has only added to selling pressure on the Indonesian unit and is aggravating the crisis, they said. Either Jakarta decides to guarantee a selected amount of the outstanding debts or the failure of the currency to recover will force the country to call a unilateral halt to repayments and a nationwide debt moratorium. "It looks more and more like they will have to opt for the Chilean solution from the 1980s and allow the central bank to provide dollar liquidity to a number of key corporates and let the rest sink or swim," said one analyst at a European bank in London. Bankers in London, who declined to be quoted because of the sensitivity of repayment negotiations, confirmed reports from Singapore on Tuesday that repayments in rupiah have been seen for at least a week and in increasingly significant amounts. Companies unable to find scarce dollars on the local market are asking Indonesian banks to accept foreign currency loan repayments in rupiah rather than dollars. The banks are then negotiating similar deals with western bank creditors. "Many creditors are beginning to think it is better to accept dollar debts in rupiah rather than run the risk of not getting paid at all," said one analyst at a European bank. "The rupiah is then being immediately hedged though the foreign exchange market and it is exaggerating the rupiah's weakness -- and ultimately the whole situation." Indonesia's huge private-sector foreign currency liabilities have spiralled as a result of the rupiah's 75 percent collapse against the dollar since July of last year. This has brought their ability to repay into question and the consequent scramble for dollars to cover these loans has, in turn, exaggerated the rupiah's slide. A vicious circle has ensued, dealers said. Indonesian President Suharto's statement last week that the government would not bail out troubled companies sent shivers through western creditors and has prompted some to accept rupiah for the loans for fear of large-scale bankruptcies. "What we've got in Indonesia is an unsolved debt crisis. Tight budget measures and IMF commitments are all very well, but corporates and banks simply can't find enough dollars to pay off these overseas debts and any that do appear locally are gobbled up in a flash," said one analyst at a UK bank. "Until we get some idea of how these debts are going to be dealt with, the rupiah will find it almost impossible to strengthen." If creditors were to hold the rupiah at current levels as a punt on a sharp recovery in the currency, then there may be some hope. But none want to remain exposed to the ailing Indonesian currency. Moreover, the hedging of this newly repaid rupiah has created disproporionate pressure on the currency in offshore markets. The recovery of the rupiah to about 7,000 per dollar last week quickly reversed to more than 10,000 on Tuesday. Estimates from the IMF and the Indonesian government put the country's external debt at around $140 billion at the end of last year, or about two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP), and of this some $20 billion was short-term. Around $65 billion of this lies in corporate hands and there is around $15 billion of commercial paper. The large number of Indonesian companies reeling from the currency collapse makes a forum for restructuring the country's debt extremely difficult, analysts said. In South Korea, where western banks are currently rolling over maturing hard currency debts and negotiating a restructuring, the debtors were mostly part of large conglomerates and the government has offered to guarantee the debts in any case. "The line on Korea was that it was too big to fail. The problem here is that we're still not sure that's the case for Indonesia," said one trader at a U.S. investment firm.

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (1272)	1/21/1998 7:05:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

News on special bank forming in Thailand ---------------------------------------------- vian Infobeat 01/20/98 New Thai bank to shop for good assets In a step toward cleaning up Thailand's debt-stricken financial sector, the Thai government has approved the establishment of a new commercial bank which will bid for the best assets of 56 insolvent finance companies. The establishment of the so-called "good bank" is part of a strategy to restore the financial system's health by separating the good assets of bankrupt financial institutions from the bad ones. (USA Today)

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (1272)	1/21/1998 7:07:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Respond to of 9980

News on Singapore exports in 1997 ------------------------------------- Infobeat 01/20/98 Singapore exports edged higher in 1997 Singapore's non-oil exports last year were just 5.3% above 1996, as trade growth was slowed by economic and financial turmoil in the region. Singapore's Trade Development Board says non-oil exports rose to 91.6 billion Singapore dollars from 87 billion Singapore dollars in 1996. The board estimates total trade growth in 1998 will be 3.5% to 5.5%. But it warns it may revise its projections as the year progresses due to the volatility of the region. (USA Today) ----------- >>The surprise would be if they didn't nedd to revise, I guess. T.<<