To: DiViT who wrote (28284 ) 1/20/1998 12:50:00 PM From: John Rieman Respond to of 50808
DTV at CES. Stillborn??????????????????????????multichannel.com At CES, A Star Is Stillborn By Gary Arlen Contributing Curmudgeon Digital television was supposed to be the star of this month's Consumer Electronics Show, showcasing the high-definition and digital TV sets that retailers should be putting on their shelves by autumn. Instead, TV manufacturers from Sony to Sharp to Philips to RCA kicked off their campaigns to create lower expectations about DTV delivery. They and others unveiled a perfunctory line of high-tech, very high-priced digital sets, acknowledging that they plan to sell only a few tens of thousands of units in limited markets (where broadcasters begin DTV telecasts) this year. RCA tried to bolster some hopes, announcing a deal with DirecTV, which will deliver DSS transmissions of HDTV later this year, thus offering the satellite audience a chance to use those RCA receivers. To complicate the digital TV debut, the television set makers showed equipment built around several different technical architectures, further suggesting that the DTV market will be fragmented upon introduction. Although ostensibly supporting all 18 Grand Alliance formats, some makers emphasized the 1080-interlaced format, while others concentrated on 780-progressive and 480-progressive formats -- the latter favored by computer companies that are pushing their own versions of digital TV. Some big-brand TV makers, notably Panasonic, didn't even demonstrate a DTV set, but merely offered a stand-alone set-top decoder that can receive and convert DTV signals for viewing on existing TV monitors. Although Panasonic was coy about pricing, its set-top is likely to debut in the $700-plus range -- which would be a bargain compared to the $3,000 to $10,000 price tags tentatively placed on the full DTV and HDTV sets. That combination of extravagant pricing and limited availability left retailers scratching their heads about what they really will be able to sell this year. And they weren't even thinking about the broadcasters' ongoing efforts to postpone the mandated launch of digital TV in 10 top markets by November. It added up to a somber launch for a product that has been hyped for so many years. The Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association, which runs CES, kept its word to provide dozens of live DTV and HDTV exhibits at the Las Vegas show. Sadly, the transmissions (from local HDTV experimental towers) were limited to the usual prototype fare: ice skating, nature shots and stock sports footage. Hence, even the visuals didn't convey the impact of the DVD element displayed on adjacent monitors. Perhaps it's too dramatic to characterize DTV as "stillborn." Given the decade-long promises that HDTV is just around the corner, some might say it was "still born again." Among the definitions of "stillborn" is "unsuccessful from the beginning," and truthfully, that may be a bit harsh for this attractive technology. While skeptics are already saying that there's no mass market for these systems, DTV's immediate -- and very competitive -- challenges came from other parts of CES. As amply reported elsewhere, TCI and Silicon Valley used the unusual venue of the Consumer Electronics Show to unveil their set-top box plans. TCI's dual deal with Microsoft and Sun Microsystems (respectively for Windows CE operating systems and PersonalJava programming language) reminded the retailers who were paying attention that they may soon have the chance to sell a digital set-top box on behalf of the cable industry. Thanks to other recent deals, notably Sony's buy-in to NextLevel (to be renamed General Instruments on Feb. 2), brand names are coming to the cable set-top. (Sorry, Zenith, we know you're there already). Indeed, the opportunity to sell those new boxes, whatever they might be, was on many minds in Las Vegas. Tandy Corp. chairman John Roach told me he wants to figure out how those deals will give RadioShack an annuity by selling cable hardware. He'd like to develop relationships similar to Tandy's pact with Sprint PCS, in which the retailer gets an ongoing revenue stream based on usage of the devices it sells. Of course, that structure is completely alien to cable companies. As mega-retailers enter the digital set-top box business, an entirely new financial model may be developed. It could be one that diverts retailers toward the cable digital box and away from the vaporous HDTV equipment. CES is always a melting pot of gizmos and hype. This year's computer-centric digital binge augurs the arrival of an evermore perplexed digital viewing audience. And that's for high, low and medium definitions. Iway Patrol Columnist Gary Arlen particularly enjoyed Bill Gates' and Scott McNealy's cross-barbed satirical "commercials" shown during their CES speeches.