Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13281)	1/20/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 18056

We will live and see. Yes, God willing! I will not commit harakiri if my turnips misled me (G). I may have to add to my shorts tomorrow. Need another target. CLX buck the trend today.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13281)	1/21/1998 5:53:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Zeev: Looks like the Asian rally has run out of steam. U.S. market should follow today as you predicted.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13281)	1/21/1998 6:29:00 AM
From: Jack Clarke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Zeev, In previous posts you have blown away one of my tenets of the "overvalued market", the low dividend yield, by giving the currently popular explanation that the dividends are plowed back into stock purchases, driving up the price and avoiding tax consequences. Fair enough, I suppose, although I still question stock price expansion alone as a store of value, since this ultimately only works when you sell the equity, whereas dividends one may spend or invest elsewhere. But I'll grant you the point for sake of my current argument. Now, please give a similar explanation for the abysmally high price to book ratio? If you look at the past, it has never been a good time to buy stocks when you are paying more than twice their book value. Now people are paying four or five times the company's book value. What is the "new era" explanation for this phenomenon? I always value your opinion. Jack

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13281)	1/21/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Zeev, Looks like both of our turnips were a day or so early -g- With IPO season resuming shortly any excess money will be easily absorbed. Looks like lots of uninteresting junk should go on sale over the next few weeks. I don't think that the market can go up much more from here. In any case, I am not in a hurry to jump back in on the short side until a trend at least starts. I looked back at some historical results and found that stock markets can rise to about 80% +- 15% (e.g. US 29) of GDP when there a commodity based currency (e.g. gold). The limit seems to be 130% (e.g. Japan 89)when a debt based currency is in effect. Since we are at about 130% these days I feel that we are somewhere near the limit. The fact that the market can't seem to get past old highs (or even hold near them for long) seems to confirm my hypothesis. Any thoughts? Am I just talking myself into thinking that the risk of shorting one of the major indexes is limited? I also feel that the rush of panic money into the US should be just about over. Last August when I turned into a bear, I stated that Central bank purchased of US paper came to a halt (see custodial account numbers) and that private investors would follow the same course in about 9 months (it takes time to notice that the herd leader has changed direction). The big panic money that is going to come here should be here by now, or will be in another 3 months at the most. The Asians have been the main investors followed by the Europeans. The Asians should be out of money soon (excluding Japan) and the Europeans have banking down grades and internal problems to deal with. With the annual 500-600 billion in foreign investment coming to a close I think that the bull market will also come to a close for a while. My estimate is that foreign investment was at least twice as important as 401k money in driving the last two years of the bull market. My turnips were the outside reversal week before last, gann trend change dates, trin, rsi, E-waves. I don't put a lot of faith in these but they seem to work for small time horizons, provided that you have the fundamentals correct. What turnips do you use? My record with these turnips is 3-1-1 (w,l,t) since August. The average stay on the short side has been 3 days. Have you tracked your results? You seem to be doing better than I am over the past 6 months.