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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (148345)	5/6/2019 2:58:36 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By Arran Yuan Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217860

let me be selfish for a moment, and when so, am giddy with anticipation it is going to be very extremely good MMT following QE, on top of OBOR / BRI on the one hand, and lots of creative destruction by method of kinetic energy on the other almost indecent, assuming below, minus a few details, is what would drive the world going forward, until not gun the engines of global growth ;0) zerohedge.com Why Trump Has All The Leverage In China Trade Negotiations, In 3 ChartsThose curious who is more impacted by the sudden re-escalation in trade hostilities between the US and China can get a quick answer by looking at the market reaction to Sunday's unexpected news: while the S&P is down barely 1%, overnight Chinese stocks plunged nearly 6%, their biggest drop in over three years, indicating just how much more sensitive to every twist and turn in trade relations Chinese stocks are. Of course, one can counter just how smaller - and far less relevant - the Chinese stock market is in comparison to the S&P500, which is also the basis for the vast majority of household net worth for Americans, and global investors (whereas in China, it is the local housing that is far more critical and accounts for roughly 70% of household net worth). But it's not just the stock market that shows why China should tread very lightly in its ongoing negotiations with Trump, or why the US president has decided suddenly to re-escalate. Below we lay out [ ] charts showing just why the US indeed continues to have the upper hand in negotiations with China, starting with the relative importance of the US and European economies to China rather than vice versa. Wall Street Down Over China Trade Concerns As the first chart below from Deutsche Bank shows, the US and Europe are "much more important for China than China is for US and Europe" as China remains the nation with the highest beta, or the highest relative impact, from a 1% move in either direction for either the US or the Euro area. Second, whereas the US is now actively contemplating the launch of MMT, and exploding the US twin deficit by issuing virtually unlimited amounts of debt - which it ostensibly can do as long as the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency - China is already near its leverage peak. In fact, as shown in the chart below, both China's willingness and ability to lever up is now quite limited according to Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok. Last, and certainly not least, is what we said back in January represented a "tectonic shift" in China's economy, when we observed that this year, for the first time in history, China's current account deficit will turn negative meaning that China will henceforth need financing from the rest of the world, and specifically the US. Which is why, as we said five months ago, it is not Beijing that has leverage over the US, but rather the US whose ability - and desire - to allocate capital to China could mean all the difference for China's economic growth, or lack thereof. Finally, and tangentially, assuming trade talks collapse and Trump follows through on his threat of hiking taxes on Chinese imports, it would, as Torsten Slok shows in his latest chart, push US tariffs - which are already higher than most advanced economies - higher than many emerging market countries making the US one of the leading protectionist countries in the work. That alone would cripple China's economy, and is perhaps the main reason why Trump decided to once again flex his muscles, if so far only on twitter.

To: carranza2 who wrote (148345)	5/6/2019 4:43:52 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By Arran Yuan Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217860

w/r to tariffs, I believe it is now a non-issue if, and that is a big if, below article is correct because the entire issue of 'forced technology transfer' is a figment of deep-state Neo-con / Neo-lib imagination, in accordance to analysis I know is true Message 32134163 <<Then there is the red herring emphasized in the Section 301 report published by the US Trade Representative (USTR) in March 2018, which provides the foundational justification for tariffs levied on China: forced technology transfer between US companies and their Chinese joint venture (JV) partners. The key word is “forced,” which implies that innocent US companies that enter willingly into contractual agreements with Chinese counterparts are coerced into surrendering their proprietary technologies in order to do business in the country. To be sure, JVs obviously entail a sharing of people, business strategies, operating platforms, and product designs. But the charge is coercion, which is inseparable from the presumption that sophisticated US multinationals are dumb enough to turn over core proprietary technologies to their Chinese partners. This is another shocking example of soft evidence for a hard allegation. Incredibly, the USTR actually admits in the Section 301 report (on page 19) that there is no hard evidence to confirm these “implicit practices.” Like the IP Commission, the USTR relies instead on proxy surveys from trade organizations like the US-China Business Council, whose respondents complain of some discomfort with China’s treatment of their technology.>> the functionaries are teeing up a red herring, acting tough, and setting up to win a red herring. if below article is pointing out the truth, that << Trump Threatened Tariffs After Hearing of Chinese Reversal ... forced technology transfer>> ... then the trade deal is done, as good as signed. or we can adopt the view spun by cretins, twits, morons, dullards, and Neo-lib / Neo-cons, that trump is going to crater his win 2020 by trying win a pointless red herring served up by the same cretins, twits, ... etc etc https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-06/trump-said-to-threaten-tariffs-after-hearing-of-chinese-reversal Trump Threatened Tariffs After Hearing of Chinese Reversal, Sources Say Jenny Leonard Donald Trump’s top trade negotiator told him that Beijing was back-tracking on a trade deal following a round of talks last week, angering the president and leading him to threaten on Sunday to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, according to people familiar with the matter. In talks last week in Beijing, Chinese officials told their U.S. counterparts they would not agree to a trade deal that required changes to Chinese law, the people said. China had previously agreed to change its laws in the text of the deal, they said. The change has major implications for provisions of the deal aimed at ending a Chinese practice of forcing U.S. companies seeking to do business in the country to reveal proprietary technologies and other intellectual property. The U.S. side, led by Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, thought that issues around what’s known as forced technology transfer were resolved and considered the Chinese position on changing its laws to be an attempt to renegotiate, the people said. Lighthizer was angered by the move and briefed Trump. The president then issued a pair of tweets on Sunday criticizing China and threatening to raise tariffs on about $200 billion in goods to 25 percent from 10 percent. The people familiar with the matter asked not to be identified because the China trade talks are sensitive and have been conducted in secrecy. But official readouts last week from the U.S. and Chinese governments that depicted the latest round of talks in Beijing as productive were overstated, the people said. Trump’s trade negotiators weren’t particularly surprised by his tweets, the people said. The White House didn’t immediately comment. A new round of trade talks are expected this week in Washington, but it is unclear whether the Chinese government will send top officials following Trump’s tweets. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday that a delegation would still travel to Washington but would not say when. Global equities tumbled and Treasury futures climbed following the tweets, which set back investor confidence the U.S. and China would soon resolve their trade war. The S&P 500 Index fell as much as 1.6 percent on Monday before paring losses. The tweets did considerably more damage in China, where the Shanghai Composite Index sunk 5.6 percent on Monday for its steepest drop in three years, even after state-backed funds were said to step in to cushion the blow. — With assistance by Shawn Donnan, and Jeremy Herron

To: carranza2 who wrote (148345)	5/21/2019 5:34:52 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217860

Disturbance in the Force Ordered special Au for delivery in 30-days. One of three allocated to HK out of 500 authorised for the planet. The premium demanded seems modest, so what the heck, and besides, the inconveniently large coin encased in plastic casing makes a good paper-weight combo coaster for hot chocolate. Was able to snag one back in 2017, assigned to the coconut, and its value has risen, so evidence seems to indicate okay to tick one for the jack. Speaking of the kids, one studying as diligently as ever, and the other loves to game He says pizza goes well w/ gaming w/ friends Wait until he discovers beer