Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (4986)	1/20/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: current trend	Respond to of 42787

INDEX UPDATE Subject: Tech Stock Options To: +lisa (33708 ) From: +donald sew Tuesday, Jan 20 1998 7:27PM EST Reply # of 33716 INDEX UPDATE ------------------------------------------ In previous post, I had indicated that this week will be crucial to determine direction, especially if we would set lower lows. I had indicated that the previous peaks were: DOW at 7980 NAZ at 1594 SPX at 977 Today the SPX took out its previous peak of 977, and the NAZ closed at 1590 only 4 points short(lets consider that close enough). So for the major indexes, we can probably say that 2 out of 3 were able to break or equal the previous peaks. As for trends, I consider that there are 3 types = UPTREND, DOWNTREND, RANGETRADING TREND, and my basic rule of thumb is not to short in an uptrend/ not to go long in a downtrend/ but in a RANGE TRADING TREND one can go both ways. With the SPX and NAZ great performance today, I can now say that the probability that we will set lower lows for the mid-term/longer-term is now slim and that I can conclude that we are not in an downtrend, at least for the time being. Now the question is are we still in a range-trading trend or an uptrend. Please keep in mind that we will have a short-term pullback soon since the market is overbought, and it could happen as soon as tomorrow, but that is short-term. What is the mid to longer term trend. With the SPX exceeding the previous peak and the NAZ basicly equaling its previous peak, these may be clues that just today we may have reverted back to a mid-term uptrend. Of course, we need further confirmation to be more confident on this call. For those watching MSFT, I now may not do puts at all since the mid-term trend may be changing. I am making the distinction between the short-term trend and the mid/longer term trend. For the short-term trend it still has the bias to the upside for tomorrow, but we should be topping out as early as tomorrow with the pull-back starting Thursday/Friday, and could be as early as tomorrow intraday. If the mid/longer-term trend has changed to be an uptrend, then the reversal of this forthcoming short-term downtrend will not be that strong. For discussion, I am considering mid-term to be 5-30 days. Any comments as to the direction of the mid-term trend, not the short-term trend. Seeya

To: Chris who wrote (4986)	1/20/1998 8:12:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Chris i dont understand your statement... okay...sell signals would be predicated on movement and thus if related to earnings there would have to be a leak... you could have sell signals..but if IBM came out with good earnings...your sell signals could be violated... so..can you explain this to me also on TSO we have been looking at trading this in the trend channel...so do you still see it staying in a trend channel with todays info? ...lower 100's maybe 99 98...and topping out in higher 100's.. cant remember the exact trend channel..