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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve lipson who wrote (6910)	1/20/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: Harry Larson	Respond to of 13594

The sales have been to the max enabled by SEC Rule 144 and the terms of the options which AOL's 1997 Proxy notes are exercisable only over four years. Such selling to the max allowed hasn't always been the case (so to speak). Certainly the purpose is "diversification". What's important is timing of the relative amounts and price levels, which suggest judgment of valuation of the stock. For example, in May-June of 1996, when AOL was at then all-time highs around $70, officers sold over 650,000 shares. But in the December quarter, when AOL stock had plummeted to $25-$30, sales were only 50,000; and only 145,000 for January and February combined by just two officers. >>Your classic bear warning sign is when the stock makes a new >>low and insider sales continue unabated or even accelerate. Huh? Never ever heard that. More like insider selling tends to peak ahead of stock. When a stock makes a new low you don't need a "bear warning sign".

To: steve lipson who wrote (6910)	1/20/1998 11:47:00 PM
From: PeterBurgess	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

Montgomery Sec lowered q2 earnings estimates today from .21 to .15 (close to a 1/3 drop) due to high expenses in rounding up new subsribers. Strangely, the yearly earning estimates were left unchanged. MS has a HOLD on the stock. Oh, I read the MF book and became a believer in PEG stat (I don't believe that the short term future earnings forcast have much accuracy, but that it does have a psychological and behavior impact). So a PEG of 1.00 is fair value; less than 1.00 is a bargain; AOL PEG = 4.4 (MS '98 estimates) which must be duh? (a) BUY (b) HOLD (c) SHORT? What I love about investing is the clash of rational-systematic analysis/behavior with the emotional-psychologoical-religous analysis/behavior. I hate AOL (it's probably a religious issue for techies). AOL is an overvalued-story stock. The future is cable-modems and ASDL modems and even RBOC ISP commodity access to the WEB. Why should anyone mess with AOL expense and slow access? Oh, but why did my father (owner of 3 generations of pcs) just sign up? Why haven't I made mega-bucks shorting this crappy stock? There is just lots of confusion about AOL and the future to the WEB. Ok, let's get practical and make some $$$. LT this puppy is a real techo-dog and WS dog (though, not necessarily positively correlated ), and ST volatility is going to provide opportunities for traders to buy and short and win$$$. What's the peak short term value for AOL? when to switch from long to short? when do earning get announced?

To: steve lipson who wrote (6910)	1/21/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Stevie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

AOL CEO STEVE CASE REPORTS SELL of ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND SHARES..Over 7.7 million worth.BRUCE BOND..OFFICER SELLS ALL HIS SHARES (FED FILINGS) DJF: Insiders Sell AMERICA ONLINE INC. Stock DJF: Insiders Sell AMERICA ONLINE INC. Stock FORM 4 ISSUER: AMERICA ONLINE INC. SYMBOL: AOL FILER: BOND BRUCE TITLE: Officer SOLD: 12/10/97 500 83.56 OWNERSHIP: None - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ISSUER: AMERICA ONLINE INC. SYMBOL: AOL FILER: CASE STEPHEN M TITLE: Chairman of the Board SOLD: 12/01/97-12/03/97 100,000 shares price 77.00-78.00 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (END) FEDERAL FILINGS-DOW JONES NEWS 01-20-98 * end of story * Not sure this is a Trivial amount Good luck to all...Im selling