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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Yang who wrote (7881)	1/21/1998 1:28:00 AM
From: Marc Newman	Respond to of 213173

<<July-Sept....Mid 98...Close enough for me. :-)>> It is close, I just wanted to go with the latest, closest estimate. Your point about NCs helping cut the cost of PPC chips is a good one, since they will be using G3s. I'm starting to think that the stock price could support a charge or two next quarter as long as there are positive ops. My worry is about the non-G3 inventory levels, something we really won't be able to get a handle on. Of course they can probably dump those on the education market in fiscal Q3 and Q4. Perhaps if they keep making the good profits they can just charge off any inventory slowly. Reasons to feel optimistic about earnings include a greater G3 mix, a booming Europe, the effect of OS 8 in Japan, a lessening of the negativity around Apple's survival, and the ability to make a profit at very low revenue levels. Rounded up, the profit margin was already 23%. Improving it might be difficult if PowerBook prices are cut and they come up with some new drastic cuts to move non-G3s. Reasons to feel pessimistic are the low revenue levels (probably helped along by the continued cutting of the imaging division), the non-G3 machines, sluggish PowerBook sales, and historical low demand in the Jan.-March Q. The difference between a slight profit and a nice profit could come down to the last month, whether they can get some 300+ mhz G3 machines out or whether Office is early enough to boost sales. Did you see Ascend's earnings? .32 but diluted .24, what a difference conservative accounting makes. Makes one feel good to know that Apple doesn't have that many options and warrants out there. Marc