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Stocks advance on continued hopes for a rate cut
05-Jun-19 16:25 ET
Dow +207.39 at 25539.57, Nasdaq +48.36 at 7575.45, S&P +22.88 at 2826.15

briefing.com

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 advanced 0.8% on Wednesday, benefiting from follow-through buying interest on hope that the Fed will cut rates amid a slowing growth environment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%.

The Russell 2000 lost 0.1% in part due to lower oil prices ($51.66/bbl, -$1.87, -3.5%) weighing down energy stocks following some bearish inventory data. The S&P 500 energy sector declined 1.1%.

Gains were still seen across the other ten S&P 500 sectors, led by the utilities (+2.1%) and real estate (+2.3%) sectors. The outperformance in these defensive-oriented sectors reflected some reservations in adopting a full risk-on mindset, though.

The market, after all, did receive early reminders that global growth is slowing, most notably in the ADP Employment Change Report for May. The report showed an estimated 27,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls, which was well below the Briefing.com consensus of 170,000.

If there were concerns about slower economic growth undercutting earnings prospects, though, the very brief dip into negative territory in the S&P 500 during the day might have manifested those concerns. Instead, the market appeared to take comfort in the idea that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate to mitigate slowing growth.

The disappointing ADP report helped bolster this view, as the 2-yr yield dropped 10 basis points to 1.78% at its low following the report. The fed funds futures market now sees a 71.8% implied likelihood of a rate cut at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting.

Demand for Treasuries eased during the day, bringing yields off session lows, as equities advanced to session highs. The 2-yr yield finished four basis points lower at 1.84%, and the 10-yr yield finished unchanged at 2.12%. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.3% to 97.34.

Separately, notable movers in the stock market included Salesforce (CRM 158.44, +7.63, +5.1%) and Campbell Soup (CPB 41.93, +3.82, +10.0%), which pleased investors with their earnings reports.

Reviewing Wednesday's economic data, which included the ADP Employment Change Report for May, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May, the Fed's Beige Book for June, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index:

  • The ADP Employment report showed an estimated 27,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls in May, well below the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 170,000 and the prior month's downwardly revised 271,000 (from 275,000). Jobs in the goods-producing sector decreased by 43,000 while jobs in the service-providing sector increased by 71,000.
    • The key takeaway from this report is that it will foment the concerns about the U.S. economy slowing in the second quarter. At the same time, though, it will feed the market's belief that the Fed is going to be forced to cut the fed funds rate sooner rather than later.
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.9% (Briefing.com consensus 55.4%) from 55.5% in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the uptick in May reflects a slight acceleration in growth for the non-manufacturing sector.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that growth in the sector is leveling off; and it was said in the report that respondents are "mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about tariffs and employment resources."
  • The Federal Reserve's June Beige Book described economic activity during the survey period as expanding at a "modest" pace, which represents a slight improvement from the previous report. Growth was reported across most districts, but there were signs of slowing in some regions. Vehicle sales decreased across most districts. Employment continued increasing nationwide while overall prices saw modest upward pressure.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 1.5% following a 3.3% decline in the prior week.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the Trade Balance report for April, the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report, and revised first quarter readings for Productivity and Unit Labor Costs on Thursday.

  • Nasdaq Composite +14.2% YTD
  • S&P 500 +12.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +11.7% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +9.5% YTD