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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Electric who wrote (33773)	1/21/1998 1:16:00 PM
From: Darth Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

IBM calls? stopped out on cpq, bought klac on the dip.

To: Electric who wrote (33773)	1/21/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 58727

Electric, I was in the heat of making the decision to get out of my XAL call after the great earnings announcements. It was right on the verge of getting whipsawed, so I was proccupided to buy anything. Here's my observation. As I have indicated previously, the overall market is overbought per my technicals, and that the reversal should start on Thur with a top on Wed. Well with the help of IBM it appears the reversal has started. Now the question is how much lower. Since the SPX and NDX basicly equalled their previous peaks, I feel strongly that the overall market will not set lower lows. It appears strongly that the DOW will not reach its previous peak, which is a strong negative sign for specifically the DOW, hinting that the DOW could set lower lows. Since the DOW is only 30 stocks, I will go with the postion that the SPX and NDX will prevent the DOW from setting lower lows for this specific short-term cycle. One major sign that we may be turning to the upside for the longer-term (I'm not talking about the short-term which is down), is the strength in the NAZ, yesterday and today. Granted that it is not conclusive and that could easily change if MSFT reports poorly. I am not saying that the market has completely turned but I have definitely seen signals that we may be changing direction to the upside, but such definitely needs more confirmation. Here's my conclusion which is obvious - the news from the earnings are really sending the technical signals for a loop, actually many loops. One moment down the next moment up. Therefore it is very hard to get a good reading on the longer-term direction. Right now I am staying with the range trading trend, but leaning towards the uptrend, but again anything can happen with these earnings/news. As I indicaticated previously, this is a crucial week to possibly determine the longer-term trend. In light of the strength in the NAZ I will wait for the earnings from MSFT tonight. IF MSFT is bad then the likihood is that the NAZ should drop, then I will miss my chance and just have to wait for the next opportunity. If MSFT earnings are good, there may be a short pop up, but then the beginning of a pull-back, in light of MSFT being strongly overbought, along with the NAZ. For now, I will wait for tomorrow to either get into MSFT PUTS or an HiTech index PUT. Seeya