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Gold/Mining/Energy : KERM'S KORNER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (8580)1/21/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman  Respond to of 15196
 
MARKET ACTIVITY/TRADING NOTES FOR DAY ENDING TUESDAY, JANUARY 20, 1998 (4)

MARKET ACTIVITY

Wall Street powered ahead as the first wave of earnings reports dispelled fears that the Asian crisis would ravage balance sheets. Canadian stocks rose, led by oil producers and real estate issues. "Even if Asian growth is less than expected, oil prices should be firmer as demand from the rest of the world is still growing at an above average pace," said Philip Strathy, a portfolio manager with Strathy Investment Management Ltd.

HOT STOCKS

Petro-Canada (PCA/TSE) sent oil issues higher, rising 90› to $25.90 after reporting better than expected fourth-quarter profit. Suncor Energy Inc. (SU/TSE), Who reported better than expected earnings on Monday, rose 80› to $46.95.

Canadian Fracmaster Ltd. (CFC/TSE), up $1.60 to $18, on volume of 54,000 shares. The Calgary-based oil services company's shares have gained 13% this week as institutional investors retake positions, said Marcel Brichon of Global Securities Corp. "[Fracmaster] has international exposure with dealings in China and Russia so their products will always be in demand," Brichon said. He maintains his 12 month target price of $21 and rates the stock a "buy".

In the U.S., Exxon (XON) shrugged off a steep drop in world crude-oil prices to report record fourth-quarter profits exceeding Wall Street estimates.

Improved downstream margins and higher sales of refined products and chemicals netted the blue-chip company $1.01 per share. Excluding nonrecurring items, net rose 5%, to 89 cents a share from 84 cents in the 1996 quarter. Analysts' consensus estimate for the quarter was 75 cents per share, according to the tracking firm First Call. Exxon shares gained 1 to 61 7/8.

EXCHANGE INFORMATION

U.S. firm Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY - news; 1533.T) said on Wednesday that it will delist its shares from the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

The company said in a statement that the cost of maintaining its listing in Tokyo outweighed the advantages.

The TSE said in a separate statement the company's shares are expected to be delisted on April 29.

Occidental Petroleum, which is based in Los Angeles, California, joined TSE's foreign section on December 18, 1987.

After Occidental Petroleum delists, the total number of foreign companies listed on the TSE's foreign section will fall to 59. The number represents a sharp decline from the 125 foreign companies which were listed on the bourse at the end of 1990.

INDEXES

The Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Composite Index gained 0.5% or 33.84 to 6509.45

In comparicson, the Oil & Gas Composite Index gained 1.4% or 84.91 to 6221.90. The Integrated Oils continued strong, rising 2.0% or 173.69 to 8726.61. The Oil & Gas Producers gained 0.8% or 44.58 to 5437.18. The Oil & Gas Services group climbed 3.8% or 98.76 to 2673.40.

INDEX CHARTS

TSE 300.......... canoe.quote.com

O&G Composite. chart.canada-stockwatch.com

Integrated Oil's.... chart.canada-stockwatch.com

O&G Producers.. chart.canada-stockwatch.com

O&G Services..... chart.canada-stockwatch.com

OIL & GAS PRICE REFERENCES

Charts: oilworld.com

NYMEX Reference quotewatch.com

MOST ACTIVE STOCKS

Ranger Oil, Newport Petroleum, Paragon Petroleum, Petro-Canada, Pinnacle Resources, Poco Petroleums, Canadian Natural Resources and Anderson Exploration were among the top 50 most active issues traded on the TSE.

Tri Link Resources gained $1.50 to $16.00, Rigel Energy $1.20 to $12.60, Petro-Canada $0.90 to $25.90 and Suncor Energy $0.80 to $46.95.

Among percentage leaders, K2 Energy gained 15.6% to $1.85, Kappa Energy 12.5% to $2.70, Benson Petroleum 11.1% to $1.50, Windsor Energy 10.6% to $5.75, Tri Link Resources 10.3% to $16.00, TUSK Energy 9.1% to $1.20, Highridge Exploration 8.5% to $3.85, Pacific Cassiar 7.8% to $5.50, Symmetry Resources 7.8% to $1.25, Bow Valley Energy 6.5% to $1.65 and Compton Petroleum 6.4% to $1.49.

On the downside, Norcen Energy Resources fell $0.60 to $14.85, Newquest Energy $0.50 to $5.50, Pendaires Petroleum $0.50 to $10.00 and Pinnacle Resources $0.45 to $15.05.

Percentage losers included Eurogas Corp. 17.1% to $1.70, First Calgary Petroleums 15.7% to $0.86, Newquest Energy 8.3% to $5.50, Profco Resources 8.0% to $0.92, Blackrock Ventures 7.4% to $1.25 and Courage Energy 5.2% to $1.65.

Sands Petroleum AB (new issue) reached a new 52-week high.

Black Sea Energy reached a new 52-week low.

Even with a robust day, there were no oil & gas service companies, or those closely tied to the industry, among the top 50 most active traded issues on the TSE.

Enerflex Systems gained $2.05 to $29.95, Canadian Fracmaster $1.60 to $18.00, Dreco Energy Services $1.40 to 41.40, Shaw Industries $1.25 to $43.50, Tesco $1.05 to $20.55, Ryan Energy $0.95 to $9.70 and Ensign Resource Services $0.80 to $28.00.

Percentage gainers included Trican Well 11.9% to $4.70, Ryan Energy 10.9% to $9.70, Canadian Fracmaster 9.8% to $18.00, Enerflax Systems 7.3% to $29.95 and Petro Well Energy 6.4% to $1.17.

None werre listed among net losers.

Percentage losers included Kelman Technologies 6.0% to $1.72 and Peak Energy 5.1% to $3.75.

No new 52-week highs or lows.

Over on the Alberta Stock Exchange, Red Sea Oil, Calahoo Petroleum, Jerez Energy, Tessex Energy, Cirque Energy, Oxbow Exploration, Bearcat Exploration, Scimitar Hydrocarbons, Ramarro Resources, Carpatsky Petroleum and Prize Energy were among the top 30 most active traded issues.

Capco Resources gained $0.85 to $3.75, Solid Resources $0.25 to $7.50, Colt Energy $0.17 to $1.46, Stellarton Energy $0.15 to $4.75, Draig Energy $0.14 to $1.25, Global Link Int'l $0.13 to $1.03, Del Mar Energy $0.10 to $0.50, Niko Resources $0.10 to $4.60, Palmetto Resources $0.10 to $1.20 and Telford Resources $0.10 to $0.95.

Percentage gainers included capco resources 29.3% to $3.75, Orion Resources 25.7% to $0.44, Global Link Int'l 14.4% to $1.03, Tessex Energy 14.0% to $0.49, Fox Energy 13.6% to $0.50, Ramarro Resources 13.6% to $0.25 and Colt Energy 13.2% to $1.46.

On the downside, Underbalanced Drilling fell $0.20 to $2.55, Red Sea Oil $0.15 to $3.65, Gold Star Energy 40.07 to $0.42 and Master Downhole Canada $0.07 to $1.13.

Percentage losers included Goldstar Energy 14.3% to $0.42, Circle Energy 12.2% to $0.43 and NTI Resources 11.5% to $0.23.

No new 52-week hoighs.

Gopher Oil & Gas reached a new 52-week low.

An excellent summary of most actives covering all four of the Canadian Stock Exchanges can be found at quote.yahoo.com

ANALYST / RESEARCH COMMENTS

Greg Bay, vice-president of Vancouver-based M.K. Wong & Associates, is maintaining his defensive stance on the Canadian equity market.

"There is likely to be a slowdown in world economic growth and this could impact corporate earnings and maintain the downward pressure on commodity prices," he said. The Canadian equity market has been under pressure because of its sensitivity to gold and base metal prices.

M.K.Wong & Associates, a subsidiary of Hongkong Bank of Canada, has for some time been underweight the oil and gas sector, golds and base metals. Of the resources, only the oil and gas sector is starting to look attractive - particularly companies with a natural gas exposure. This ties in with Bay's theme of emphasizing companies geared to North America.

In his equity portfolios, Bay has held about 20% in cash for the past two months in anticipation of a difficult market. The firm's asset mix in its balanced portfolios continues to emphasize bonds, he said.

For his equity portfolios, Bay likes: Prudential Steel Ltd. (PTS/TSE) $13.10 ($26.63-$7.33). The Calgary-based company produces carbon steel tubular products used in the energy sector. Bay said it has a good balance sheet with no debt and a strong cash position. The common shares were split three-for-one in late 1997. Bay's earnings per share estimates are $1.30 for 1997 and $1.50 for 1998. "The stock is cheap," he said.

GORDIN CAPITAL MORNING NOTES

Ulster Petroleum
(ULP - T:$12.15) BUY

1997 Production Exceeds Expectations

Ulster Petroleum produced 1997 averages of 9,500 bbls/d of liquids and 98 mmcf/d of natural gas, meeting our oil forecast and exceeding our gas prognostication. The company is currently producing 11,000 bbls/d of liquids and 110 mmcf/d of gas. Our CFPS forecasts are $2.15 for 1997 and $2.30 for 1998. Despite weak current oil prices, Ulster plans to maintain its 1998 capital expenditure budget of $125 million. In our estimate, this will result in a 1998 debt/cash flow ratio of 2.1X. David Stenason

Pinnacle Resources
(PNN - T:$15.50) BUY
1998 Capital Expenditure Budget Reduced To $240 Million

Pinnacle has recently reduced its 1998 capital expenditure budget from $285 million to $240 million. The drilling program for 1998 has been reduced from 575 to 475 wells. As a result, we are lowering our 1998 average production volumes slightly from 37,000 bbls/d to 36,000 bbls/d for oil and from 150 mmcf/d to 145 mmcf/d for gas. We are lowering our 1998 CFPS estimate slightly from $3.65 to $3.55. Under this scenario, the company's debt/cash flow ratio would be 2.4X this year. Our 12-month stock price target is $23.00. David Stenason




To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (8580)1/21/1998 4:09:00 PM
From: Kerm Yerman  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 15196
 
MARKET ACTIVITY/TRADING NOTES FOR DAY ENDING TUESDAY, JANUARY 20, 1998 (5)

KERM'S TOP 21 - SPEC15 - SERV 9 LISTED COMPANIES IN THE NEWS

In 1997, PETRO-CANADA posted the best results in its history, with unaudited net earnings of $306 million ($1.13 per share), as a result of strong performance in both the Upstream and Downstream sectors. Net earnings increased by $59 million, or 24 per cent, over 1996. Earnings from operations were $314 million ($1.16 per share), compared with $247 million ($0.94 per share) in 1996.

Cash flow increased to $1 263 million ($4.66 per share), up from $863 million ($3.29 per share) a year earlier, reflecting lower current income taxes and higher earnings.

Net earnings in the fourth quarter of 1997 were $78 million ($0.29 per share), down from a record $101 million ($0.38 per share) for the same period last year. Cash flow was $308 million ($1.13 per share), compared with $270 million ($1.00 per share) in the fourth quarter of 1996.

President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Stanford said, ''We are very proud of our accomplishments in 1997, which are primarily the result of the outstanding effort and dedication of our employees. In the Downstream sector, we achieved record results and increased our return on capital employed to 11 per cent, primarily by capturing the benefits of an improved business environment, implementing successful marketing programs and continuing to focus on managing controllable expenses.

''On the Grand Banks, the Company reached an historic milestone in November, when Hibernia produced first oil,'' said Stanford. ''Hibernia's first two wells are currently producing over 60 000 barrels per day and two tanker loads of light, sweet Hibernia crude have already been shipped to market. Terra Nova, the Company's next Grand Banks oil development, received final regulatory approval last week and we expect approval by the project co-owners in the next few weeks.

''In Western Canada, Petro-Canada's focus on natural gas is paying off,'' said Stanford. ''We added proved natural gas reserves in excess of our 1997 natural gas production. Despite generally rising costs in the industry, Petro-Canada reduced overall finding and development costs for conventional oil and gas to approximately $7.65 per barrel of oil equivalent. In addition, the recently announced expansion at the Syncrude oil sands development will double Petro-Canada's 12 per cent share of production from current levels to over 50 000 barrels per day by 2007.''

Fourth quarter earnings from operations in the Upstream (exploration and production) were $54 million, compared with $94 million in the same period last year. Earnings in 1997 were reduced due to lower straddle plant margins, and lower prices for crude oil and liquids as well as the disposition of producing properties. The 1996 results were negatively affected by the Company's oil and gas hedging activites.

The Downstream sector (refining and marketing) earned $48 million from operations during the fourth quarter of 1997, up $18 million from the comparative quarter in 1996. Stronger volumes, lower feedstock prices and a wider light/heavy crude oil price differential contributed to the improvement.

In early January, Petro-Canada and Ultramar Diamond Shamrock Corporation (UDS) announced their intention to form a Downstream joint venture that will be the leader in the Canadian refining and marketing industry. The new entity will provide Petro-Canada with a leading position across Canada and an excellent platform for growth in adjacent U.S. markets. Stanford observed, ''The joint venture with UDS is a significant step forward in achieving Petro-Canada's vision of becoming the pre-eminent Canadian integrated oil and gas company.''

Petro-Canada is one of Canada's largest oil and gas companies, operating in both the upstream and downstream sectors of the industry. Its common and variable voting shares trade on Canadian exchanges under the symbol PCA, and its variable voting shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol PCZ.

Supplemental Information

Upstream

The Upstream sector earned $188 million from operations in 1997, compared with $192 million in 1996. Earnings in 1997 were reduced as lower straddle plant margins and lower liquids production and prices more than offset increased natural gas production and prices. The 1996 results were negatively affected by the Company's oil and gas hedging activities. Daily crude oil, liquids and natural gas production was 171 100 barrels of oil equivalent, up slightly from 168 500 barrels of oil equivalent in 1996. Natural gas production rose 48 million cubic feet per day, or over 6 per cent, to an average of 760 million cubic feet in 1997. Total conventional crude oil and liquids production was 70 200 barrels per day, down from 73 200 barrels per day in 1996 as new production from Hibernia was offset by lower production in Western Canada.

Western Canada conventional crude oil and liquids production was 57 500 barrels per day, down from 61 500 barrels per day in 1996. This decline was due to the sale in 1997 of assets which had produced 4 000 barrels of oil and liquids per day during the previous year, as well as natural decline. Daily synthetic crude oil production from Syncrude averaged 24 900 barrels in 1997, up from 24 100 barrels in 1996.

Crude oil and natural gas liquids prices averaged $25.49 per barrel in 1997, compared with $27.20 per barrel in 1996. Natural gas prices averaged $1.85 per thousand cubic feet in 1997, compared with $1.61 a year earlier. Prices received exclude the effects of Petro-Canada's crude oil and natural gas hedging activities, which increased the Company's Upstream earnings by $9 million in 1997, compared with a negative effect of $51 million in 1996.

Western Canada conventional delivers strong results

Petro-Canada succeeded in reducing finding and development costs for conventional proved reserves to approximately $7.65 per barrel of oil equivalent in 1997 from $8.39 in 1996, despite higher industry costs for land, seismic, drilling and personnel. The Company replaced more than 100 per cent of its gas production in 1997 through exploration and development activities. Reserve additions totalled more than 40 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which over 85% was gas and associated liquids. In 1998, Petro-Canada plans to invest approximately $375 million in its Western Canada conventional business, accelerating its natural gas exploration and development program. The Company is on track to reduce finding and development costs to first quartile levels.

Grand Banks developments

The Hibernia field's first oil well, which began producing in November, has produced at rates of more than 40,000 barrels per day - the highest single-well production in Canadian history. With the completion of the second well in mid-December, the platform now is producing over 60 000 barrels of oil per day.

Petro-Canada's 20 per cent interest in the Hibernia oil field is expected to contribute an average of almost 15 000 barrels per day in 1998. The third and fourth production wells were spudded late in the fourth quarter. In total, six wells will be on production by the end of 1998 and will be supported by three water injectors and two
gas injectors.

It is expected that, having recently received regulatory approval for the Terra Nova oil development, the owners will make a final decision on proceeding within the next few weeks. Petro-Canada estimates that its 29 per cent share of Terra Nova production will be approximately 33 000 barrels of light, sweet crude oil per day at peak. This Grand Banks oil development, operated by Petro-Canada, is expected to be on stream late in the year 2000.

The West Bonne Bay exploration well, in which Petro-Canada has a 10 per cent working interest, has reached total depth and is being evaluated. In December, Petro-Canada and three other companies acquired four exploration licences on the Grand Banks totalling approximately 330 000 gross acres for a total work commitment of $98 million over the next five years. The four companies will participate with equal working interests. Three of the parcels are located between the Hibernia, Terra Nova and Hebron/Ben Nevis oil fields and the remaining parcel is located approximately 35 kilometres northeast of Hibernia. These new licences give Petro-Canada and its partners a dominant acreage position in the Jeanne d'Arc Basin.

Negotiations are underway between Petro-Canada and its partners and two drilling contractors to bring two additional drilling rigs to the Grand Banks which will allow a multi-well exploration and delineation drilling program to begin in mid-1998. This drilling program will enable the Company and its partners to identify which Grand Banks oil development will follow Terra Nova.

International activity

In the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, Petro-Canada's 9 per cent share of production from the Veslefrikk field averaged 5 800 barrels per day in 1997. Production from the Njord field began on October 1. The Company's 7.5 per cent interest in Njord yielded an average of 1 900 barrels of oil per day in the fourth quarter and production is expected to average 4 300 barrels per day in 1998.

In Algeria, Petro-Canada commenced a three-well exploration program on the Tinrhert Block during the second half of 1997. The first well of the program encountered 75 metres of gas-condensate pay from four different zones within the Siluro-Devonian formation and tested at stabilized rates of 64 million cubic feet per day of natural gas and 5 140 barrels per day of condensate. Petro-Canada and SONATRACH, the Algerian national oil company, are currently evaluating the test results to determine the commercial potential of the discovery. The second exploration well is currently being tested and the Company expects to spud the third well in the first quarter of 1998. Petro-Canada's 70 per cent share of production from the Tamadanet oil field was 5 700 barrels of oil per day in 1997 before royalties and the sharing of profit oil.

Downstream

The Downstream sector posted record results in 1997, with earnings from operations of $225 million, compared with $130 million last year. The strong performance resulted from an improved business environment, stronger margins and the effective management of controllables, including refinery utilization, site throughputs and operating expenses. In 1997, Petro-Canada's refineries ran at full capacity.

Petro-Canada enjoyed outstanding petroleum product sales growth in 1997. Sales increased 11 per cent from 1996 volumes, primarily due to the continued success of the Company's marketing programs. Retail throughput per site averaged 3.4 million litres in 1997, up almost 10 per cent from 3.1 million litres last year. The Company continued to roll out its new-image sites and larger Superstop convenience stores in 1997. At year end, Petro-Canada's national retail network consisted of 1 784 retail sites, of which 180 have been revitalized with the new image design.

Lubricants sales increased over 33 per cent from last year; however, pressure on margins from international competitors continued to depress earnings.

Operating earnings from rack back (refining and supply) were $143 million, compared with $87 million in 1996, while rack forward (marketing) operating earnings were a record $82 million, up from $43 million last year.

Joint Venture

In January, 1998, Petro-Canada signed a memorandum of understanding with Ultramar Diamond Shamrock Corporation (UDS) to form a refining and marketing joint venture to serve customers in Canada and the north-eastern United States more efficiently and to reduce costs of the combined operations. The joint venture, which will operate as a Canadian general partnership, consists of all of Petro-Canada's downstream assets, including lubricants, and UDS' downstream operations in Canada, Michigan and several New England states. Petro-Canada will hold a 64 per cent economic interest in the joint venture and will own 51 per cent of the joint venture voting units. The joint venture will have a very competitive cost structure, and will be able to leverage the strength of the Petro-Canada brand in Canada. Petro-Canada expects that the transaction will increase its operating earnings starting in the first full year of operations.

Formation of the joint venture is subject to completion of due diligence, definitive documentation and regulatory review. Until completion of the regulatory review, including approval by the Government of Canada's Competition Bureau, approval of definitive agreements and closing, the downstream operations of each company will continue to be run separately. Petro-Canada expects to complete the transaction by mid-1998.

Financial Measures

Petro-Canada's debt at December 31, 1997 was $1 741 million, up from $1 709 million at year-end 1996. This increase was mainly due to the effect of the lower Canadian/U.S. dollar exchange rate at year-end 1997. Debt was approximately 1.4 times cash flow at year-end 1997, and the debt to debt plus equity ratio was 30.7 per cent. These ratios improved during 1997 and are consistent with the Company's conservative financial policies.

In 1997, Petro-Canada's capital investments of $1 156 million included $92 million of capital lease obligations associated with the Hibernia crude oil tanker Mattea, which was delivered in November, 1997. In keeping with the Company's objectives, Petro-Canada's expected 1998 capital expenditures of $1 135 million will be funded from cash flow and proceeds from non-core asset dispositions.

The return on capital employed for 1997 was 6.8 per cent, compared with 6.2 per cent in 1996. Cash flow return on capital employed was 24.5 per cent, up from 18.5 per cent a year earlier. Return on capital employed, while improving, continues to be constrained by the significant capital employed in Hibernia and the Company's investments for natural gas growth in Western Canada.

As at December 31, 1997, Petro-Canada's public float of 221.6 million shares comprised 175.5 million common shares, held by residents of Canada, and 46.1 million variable voting shares, held by non-residents of Canada.

For financial table detail, see the news release at the Korner.


NORTHROCK RESOURCES LTD. announced that it has purchased, through the facilities of The Toronto Stock Exchange, 944,400 common shares of Paragon Petroleum Corporation ("Paragon") at an average price of $3.79 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $3.6 million. The highest price paid was $3.80 per Paragon common share.

The Paragon common shares purchased today are the only Paragon shares owned by Northrock and represent approximately 3.0 percent of the outstanding number of Paragon shares.

Northrock has mailed to all holders of common shares of Paragon an offer and bid circular (the "Offer") dated January 12, 1998. Pursuant to the Offer, Northrock offers to purchase all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Paragon on the basis of $4.10 Canadian cash per Paragon common share or 0.19 of a Northrock common share for each Paragon common share, or a combination thereof. It is intended that the Paragon common shares acquired today by Northrock will be included in determining whether the 66 2/3 percent minimum acceptance condition set out in the Offer has been fulfilled.