Just be aware, that ...
People do not want cash, and are trying to get rid of it any- and every-which ways
It can go on for sometime, just as zirp- / nirp-policy, QE / MMT, all sub-flavors of the same protocol has lasted and is lasting longer than folks can typically hold breadth.
Between a choice of people’s lives coming asunder due to societal- / monetary- / econo- / financial- / msm-gaming, and governing regime breaking down, the decision to sacrifice all of us is very easy, and already done.
Repeat after me, we.are.phucked.and.the.truth.is.not.priced-in
Gold is still cheap, not due to in-de-flation, z-/nirp, or anything else, but clearly because rules are breaking down, as we rush towards teotwawki 2026 to engage with darkest interregnum 2032.
Collapse is a process, that which is more than an event, but before collapse, Dow knocks on heaven’s door
<<There are ALWAYS false moves before the big move and they typically come in groups of four. This is true if we are looking at a rally or a decline. It just seems to be part of human nature until we wise up.
We are also Knockin' on Heavens Door >>
Marty says the door shall open for the Dow on the fourth or fifth knock. Meaning, to paraphrase Hendry, we must hold our nose, not look at ourselves in the mirror, refrain from self loathing, and buy.
ask-socrates.com
BlogThe Interest Rate Nonsense
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your analysis stands alone. I understand what you have to say about interest rates and I find it absurd they rally gold on lower interest rates because the economy is declining meaning deflation, but they then claim gold rallies with inflation. Honestly, you are the only one that makes sense but there is nobody out there who does not speak with a forked tongue. How did you ever figure this all out?
ANSWER: I too was confronted with the same fundamental explanations that flipped back and forth and nobody was ever consistent. When I began to research to try to figure out how to sort the BS from reality, I came upon an important and valuable observation which jumped out from my fundamental case studies. Capital itself behaved in a distinctly different manner from one major 51.6- year wave to the next. This is what led me to see the patterns of Public v Private. The thinking process changed.
The following extract was taken from the April 17th, 1933 edition of Time Magazine:
"GREAT ANTICIPATIONS""Last week wheat had its first whirl on the Chicago Board of Trade since the excitement when that market opened after the bank holiday. Spot wheat touched 63 cents, up 5 cents for the week.
Last week com had a whirl. Spot com touched 35 cents (up 5 cents).
Last week rye had a whirl. Spot rye touched 50 cents (up 6 cents). "Last week Board of Trade seats touched $7,000 (up to $2,000) and
the Board of Trade began again to feel as if springtime were the only
pretty ring time. Trader Thomas Howell was seen several times upon
the floor contrary to his custom. Arthur Cutten was reported active. Old time Trader Gardner B. Van Ness was home from Manhattan. Herbert 1Blum, long inactive, was reported once more functioning. Jesse Livermore was back in Chicago with his new wife and reported bullish on com.
"The end of the depressions, the beginning of inflations are marked by rising commodity prices. Many a depressed trader began to take heart last week. Other commodities were on the mend. sugar was up. Surpluses of sugar and wheat both reported down. Copper was up on news that U.S. mines were preparing for a six-month complete shutdown.
"Stocks took their cue from commodities, mounted moderately led by such companies as American Sugar (in hope of sugar recovery). Homestake Mine (bigger profits in gold if the dollar is devalued). Com Products (in hope of com recovery).
"Many such boomlets had been off and on during the Depression. Traders looked for profit-taking, some of which took place. But in last week's bullishness, there was more than a mere hope because prices and indices had shown a little upturn. There was the beginning of the attitude: what now if not inflation? Either inflation because commodity prices would be turned upward by natural and governmental stimuli; or inflation because the Government is com mitted to spending billions, must float bond issues to reopen banks, save mortgagors, provide relief and a dozen other costly enterprises. Or inflation because the Government might reduce the gold content of the dollar. Or simply inflation in expectation of inflation. Inflation or inflation or inflation. What other alternatives?"
Here Time Magazine reported several very important aspects as to how people viewed the situation within the capital, commodity, and equity markets following the major 1932 low. Today many people hold the view that the stock market is not supposed to do well during inflationary periods because the Fed will raise interest rates. We have gold rallying with the Dow all on the claimed statement that the Fed will lower rates because of a decline in economic growth. That logic is just so bizarre they people who utter such scenarios have no place in calling themselves an analyst.
It is widely believed that stock markets normally decline during periods of rising interest rates. However, these views belong to the 51.6-year wave that peaked in April 1981. The thought process during the 1929 wave was exactly the opposite.
Looking at this commentary taken from Time Magazine, notice how the inflationary concept was viewed to be bullish for stocks. It was well remembered that the booms in 1907 and 1919 were inflationary periods, particularly pronounced in raw materials. Contemporary market logic of the day realized that all periods of great economic expansion and corporate profits were also periods of inflation. Such periods were always marked by rising interest rates as the bid for capital drove rates higher in a simple supply-demand relationship. It was also understood that recessionary and depressionary periods were periods when stocks declined. These same periods had always been marked by declining interest rates as demand for capital declined along with economic activity and expansion.
This is very important to understand. Today we no longer look at interest rates in this fashion. We have been conditioned to view interest rates in light of government intervention rather than in light of a free market atmosphere. Consider how much attention is paid to the money supply and expectations of Fed actions because of such movements. Today, market sentiment turns bullish because we expect a discount rate cut, or it turns bearish because money supply rose and thus the Fed might tighten. The same may be said of inflation out of fear that the Fed will take some action one way or the other due to changes in the CPI or PPI and at times sentiment swings based upon employment statistics.
There is something that is dramatically different from the thinking process which had dominated the 1929 wave of the 51.6-year model. Prior to Roosevelt, the government was NOT the big brother and as a result, its tentacles were less intrusive and less costly to society as a whole insofar as the proportion of national income spent on government administration. Therefore, the private sec tor was the dominant sector. If interest rates rose, it was because demand within the private sector was rising. But beginning with Roosevelt and the emergence of the next 51.6-year wave, the balance between government and the private sector changed. As this balance changed, so did the relationship in man's thinking process to some extent. Today it is not possible to experience a depression where interest rates would decline from 6% to 1% as the Fed's discount rate did between 1929 and 1932. The reason why this is impossible today is quite simple. Government has emerged as the single largest debtor. Any economic decline will merely increase the demands upon government social programs as revenues from taxation decline. Government debt levels will rise keeping demand for capital high. This is the exact opposite of what took place during the Great Depression.
Today, we find modern analysis bearish during inflationary periods largely out of fear of government intervention when in 1929 it was bullish. Economies only expand with inflation. They contract during deflation. In one aspect, inflation is a process where the public raises its demand for products, thus bidding the price for those products even higher. Therefore, economic expansion takes place when such periods exist. Companies hire more workers to increase production to meet demand.
 
There are ALWAYS false moves before the big move and they typically come in groups of four. This is true if we are looking at a rally or a decline. It just seems to be part of human nature until we wise up.
We are also Knockin' on Heavens Door while the last panic to the downside sent a flurry of emails how I was wrong and everyone else said there would be a crash, the Energy Model had turned NEGATIVE. That PROVED that there was not enough energy in the system to allow for a crash. Everyone who panicked already did so. Any panic then had to be to the upside.
There is still the risk of ONE MORE false move to the downside. After that, the fourth knock of heaven's door is typically when it will open. Worst-case scenario, it will be the fifth knock. But we are headed to new territory - PERIOD!!!!!!!
The numbers are the numbers. This is NOT an opinion game. Socrates will beat me every time. Sorry - I too am only human. |
