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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (149391)	6/25/2019 3:54:09 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218142

The script hangs together, if the script is USA Equity / Bond / Dollar Up, other Equities Up, Gold Up, other currencies / debts down [ala funds in public asset shifts to private assets, and towards usd space] followed by ... equities up more, along with gold, once usd bonds loses ummmmph as spent rocket booster followed by ... gold up some more, as we go beyond 2026 Teotwawki and towards 2032 D.I., w/ question mark at 2028 / 2029 ‘My’ 2026 / 2032 coincidentally matches some of marty’s timing, for related but different reasons, or the same reasons viewed from a different angle. The expression of all views, and there are several billion, ought to be able to find interim confirmation and be way-point validated by PoG For PoG takes all macro into consideration, by definition, and has done so since ... long time ago The tracking on predicted trajectory of PoG requires the Euro to fall apart, and the EU to split asunder, ala back to the good old days

To: carranza2 who wrote (149391)	6/26/2019 4:36:25 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218142

By the “Fiat Money Inflation in France” script the masses are supposed to gravitate towards strange new ways of speculation as the disease progressively encompasses all I guess crypto coins might qualify, especially if gold qualifies. zerohedge.com Bitcoin Soars Most Since 2017 As Dollar Drops, Bond Yields Pop Will Powell or Trump or Xi or Putin or Rouhani be 'Leeroy Johnson'? In an effort not to bury the lead, we note that cryptocurrency's rebirth accelerated dramatically today with Bitcoin spiking above $13,500 intraday (up over $2000 in the last 24 hours - Bitcoin's biggest daily dollar rise since Dec 2017)... Tracking the 2017 trajectory very well... In the 8 days since Facebook unveiled Libra, Bitcoin is up almost 50% Helped by the extreme dovishness of The ECB, The Fed, and various Fed-Speakers since. However, perhaps it is as simple as this chart... Bitcoin is protection from the idiocy of policymakers... rather like gold... Gold’s climb to a six-year high may reflect its status as “a positive yielding asset” relative to much of the world’s debt, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group LLC. As Tom Luongo noted earlier, this run up towards the end of this month into the end of Q2 may be morphing quickly into a FOMO rally that could see a blow-off top in the near future. Markets that go vertical without really pausing to take a breather will always correct down. Hard. When that happens given the expansion of Bitcoin’s dominance of the crypto market by market cap percentage in the past few weeks, I would expect to see some strong rotation into both cash and alt coins just clearing major technical hurdles on any correction. And just so we’re clear as to what’s happening here. The mother of all safe haven trades is emerging. Trade Wars, Near Hot Ones, tariffs, sanctions, popular uprisings and political instability are all on the table. While we’re all focused on whatever short-term idiocy comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth to secure his control over the Overton Window, we should be asking ourselves why the ECB is going looking at even more negative rates, LIBOR has inverted alongside Eurodollar and the U.S. Treasury market and stocks are at all-time highs. The markets aren’t irrational. Our perceptions of what is driving this behavior is. Safe haven assets change with the times. And when you step back from the insanity of the fiscal and political situation in the U.S. and Europe, the fall-out from their instability on emerging markets and the potential for major shifts in the geopolitical game board does it really seem all that odd that a simple electronic proxy for gold with thin supply, high trust and low holding risk would become a darling of the risk averse? I don’t. Read more here... * * * Chinese stocks dipped at the open, scrambled back and then did nothing for the rest of the day... European stocks ended lower - despite the Mnuchin pop... US equities were juiced overnight by Mnuchin's trade deal comments then gave it all back as humans realized the machines had misunderstood his grammar - *"deal WAS 90% done" is different from "deal IS 90% done."* Trannies and Nasdaq outperformed while Small Caps, Dow, and S&P were weakest...another weak close... Today's strength was a rebound in cyclicals as recent outperformance of defensives was dumped... VIX extended its recent gains, decoupling from stocks... Treasury yields spiked notably higher today (front-end underperforming)... 10Y yields worked their way back up to a key resistance level from FOMC day...with a deja vu nature to the move... The Dollar dipped today but remains in a tight range for the 3rd day since the FOMC day dump... Yuan spiked on Mnuchin's trade deal comments then gave it all back... Crude is the week's winner for now (thanks to a massive crude draw) with silver lagging... Gold dropped most in 3 weeks today... back to 2-day lows... While Gold traded down in USD today, in Canadian Loonies, gold is at a record high... And in case you wondered, as Zimbabwe goes full hyper-inflate-tard again by banning foreign currency withdrawals and abandoning the USDollar, gold in RTGS$ (ZimDollars) is exploding... Just how it is supposed to. Finally, the following are the dates of the last all-time high for various assets ( h/t bullmarkets.co)... Nikkei - 1989 Oil - 2008 Gold - 2011 Silver - 2011 Corn - 2012 Bitcoin - Dec 2017 DAX - Jan 2018 Russell 2K - Aug 2018 NASDAQ 100 - Apr 2019 Buy-And-Hold?

To: carranza2 who wrote (149391)	6/26/2019 8:48:57 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218142

wait & see no particular urgency first-order guess w/r to effect of restrictions on gold trading / ownership is that makes gold more desired, because there would be plenty of places where gold would not be restricted. most bank accounts in hk sport a gold sub-account for the asking zerohedge.com Lessons For Today From The Three Times The Price Of Gold Collapsed Authored by Brendan Brown via The Mises Institute, What can we learn from the three big collapses in the gold price since 1934? The causes have always included some combination of economic miracle, respite from grave fiat money disorder most of all in the US hegemon, anti-gold regulations, and global detente. Prudent analysts should never ignore these potential factors, even when the gold price seems to have embarked on a new journey to the summits as has most likely been the case since winter 2015 and 2016. The gold price had sunk at that time to almost $1,000 per ounce from its multiple peaks in 2011–12 ($1,900 in summer 2011). That collapse reflected primarily the non-emergence of high inflation in the US despite the vast “money printing” and long-term rate manipulation under the first Obama administration. Scared investors who had feared runaway inflation had not reckoned with the strong downward influence on prices (of goods and services) from globalization and digitalization. Nor had they fully digested the extent to which monetary radicalism had held back business spending in the US and other advanced economies given widespread concerns that another bubble-bust cycle was under way. Fanning the gold price collapse of 2013–15 was continuous chatter from the Fed about normalization ahead. The oil and wider commodity market slump from late 2014 slotted into the growing narrative of no imminent goods and inflation danger. Normalization never came. The Yellen Fed aborted all rate rises planned for 2016 in response to the growth cycle downturn and passing global asset market setback. The ECB and BoJ embarked on monetary radicalism even starker than in the US. Briefly in 2018, excitement in the media that Fed Chief Powell, convinced big business tax cuts meant boom ahead, was at last bringing monetary “accommodation” to an end, triggered a faltering of the incipient gold price recovery. Events this year have re-fuelled gold’s rising trend from its end-2015 trough. Meanwhile news of continued “low inflation” does not impress many gold holders who worry about colossal budget deficits in the US and likely waning downward influences on prices from globalization and digitalization. Vast accumulated mal-investment and the weakness of the invisible hand in the context of unsound money — and strengthened monopoly capitalism — does not encourage optimism for economic miracles. This optimism was a key element in the epic gold price collapse from January 1980 to end 2002. In terms of 2018 dollars, the gold price fell from $2,010 to $480 over those twenty-two years. In fact, there were two sub-collapses. The first was the plunge to $750 (2018 dollars) in 1984. This reflected Paul Volcker’s monetarist assault on “the greatest peacetime inflation” coupled with an extraordinarily high level of real US interest rates. The height was in line with widespread speculation on the miracle of “Reaganomics.” The devaluation of the dollar at Plaza (autumn 1985) and beyond accompanied by the Volcker/Greenspan monetary inflation of 1985–88 as directed by top White House official James Baker led to a brief spring for gold. Then the disintegration of the Soviet Empire followed by the emergence of US economic miracle (the IT boom of 1995–99) helped bring a second collapse, with 10-year real interest rates (as quoted in the 10-year US TIPS market) rising above 4 percent. Aggressive monetary ease from 2003–04 (the Greenspan/Bernanke Fed breathing in inflation because it had fallen “too low”) as an accompaniment to the Bush administration’s dollar devaluation policy ahead of the November 2004 election set gold on its second journey to the summits (from 2003 to 2011–12). The first such journey had been from 1968 when the US ceased intervening in the free market to hold down the price of gold at $35 per ounce. The free market was then (mid-1960s) just returning to life, having long been choked by regulation — starting with Roosevelt’s criminalization of private gold holdings within the US (1934) and then widespread exchange controls throughout the globe. The dismantling of these accelerated from the late 1960s (US gold ban lifted in December 1974, European and Japanese exchange controls abolished through 1970s). These restrictions had doubtless played a role in the long collapse of the gold price from 1934 to 1968 (during which time the gold price in 2018 US purchasing power had fallen from $650 to $250 per ounce). Economic miracles also played an important role. The mid-1950s to the mid-1960s were years of great economic miracles, not just the famed ones in Japan and Germany, but also in the US. Accordingly, rates of return to capital were extraordinarily high, dampening the appeal of gold. Even real interest rates were substantially positive, albeit held well below the level which would have been in line with the miracles. Central bankers led by the Martin Fed sought to hold nominal rates down employing Depression Era-regulations on credit and deposit interest rates for that purpose. Rapid productivity growth camouflaged underlying conditions of monetary inflation from showing up in goods and services markets. The widely told story about how the gold link of the dollar under Bretton Woods acted as bulwark against monetary inflation is myth. As soon as private gold markets came back to life, the anchor role snapped (March 1968). The remaining three years during which the official gold window remained open prolonged the opportunity for European governments to obtain the yellow metal from the US Treasury at the bargain prices still available. In looking at the gold price beyond the next summit we should be concerned about restrictions which could imperil the free market in gold. The lone serious non-fiat money is still in fragile condition due to government restraints. There is virtually no scope for banks or other financial institutions to develop “bullion banking” in which gold deposits could be used as a medium of payment (where clearing between the institutions would take place at a central gold “depot”) whether nationally or internationally. Regulators defend their veto here in terms of the wider war against cash — highlighting concerns that gold hoards include a criminal element whose money-laundering operations could flourish in bullion banks. The Bundesbanker’s advice that outlawing large denomination notes due to their use by criminals is akin to banning Mercedes-Benz autos because the mafia like driving them does not go down well with the regulators. The gold bulls might be right that gold is safe against new regulation so long as the Republicans hold the White House. The likelihood is not trivial, however, that Washington will eventually join in imposing new regulations on gold trading and international shipments, perhaps in time for the next price collapse, albeit from a new record high summit.

To: carranza2 who wrote (149391)	6/29/2019 6:27:45 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218142

think it fair to note that the trump, for all the complaints against him, is certainly leading, at multiple levels, and at several disadvantages, some self-created, others dealt out or inherited and it is good that the month closed as far as trading matters, and gold closed above 1400 likely to fall next week unless we get some ummmnph from other fronts, like Iran, currencies, interest rate, etc etc I do not believe the trade truth, like the trade war, would change much of anything, now that both sides are alert to the trajectory and possible point of destinations, and so the underpinnings for gold remains good, just that we have more time to arrange our order of battles - miners, options, paper, physical it could be that it remains true per popular belief on this side of the pond, that all the republicans want is to rule the world and everything is a deal to that end, whereas the conviction on this side of the pond is that the democrats want everyone to be just like a democrat, not negotiable dunno, let's see, and summer break shall commence next week, so first thing is first