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To: username who wrote (31442)1/21/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: Tim Luke  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
Swells are down, bummer dude!



To: username who wrote (31442)1/21/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: fiberman  Respond to of 61433
 
Stock of the Day (Archive)

Jan 21, 1998

Battle of the Titans Looms for Lucent

Lucent (NYSE:LU - news) delivered a blowout quarter Tuesday, with earnings per share beating the analyst
consensus by 20 cents. Gross margins jumped, costs fell, and the company is adjusting its foreign tax structure to
lower the effective tax rate, which should boost earnings growth throughout the year. The stock of this recent AT&T
spinoff has been sliding and drifting sideways for the past six months, so Tuesday's news reinvigorated the stock with
a 5-1/2 point boost. Whether in 1998 it can return to its post-spinoff glory, though, may depend on how successfully
it penetrates the data networking market, where it will go toe to toe with heavyweight Cisco Systems
(Nasdaq:CSCO - news) .

Few would argue that Lucent is one of premiere names in communications equipment. The company dominates the
markets for telecom switching systems, and its wireless phone gear is a hugely successful operation. It is also the
second-largest maker of DSP (digital signal processor) chips, behind Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN - news) . But
perhaps the grandest opportunity that Lucent is pursuing comes from the melding of voice and data networks.

Lucent and Nortel (NYSE:NT - news) dominate the voice side of networking, while Cisco Systems, 3Com
(Nasdaq:COMS - news) , Bay Networks (NYSE:BAY - news) and Ascend Communications (Nasdaq:ASND -
news) are among the big bruisers in the data networking business. The integration of voice and data networking is just
trickling onto the scene now, but many experts believe it will turn into a torrent in the next few years. Lucent is
planning a big push in 1998 to establish its position, but Nortel is moving in the same direction and most analysts say
Nortel is ahead of Lucent in this regard. At the same time, Cisco and friends are pressing in from the other side. It will
be a mad scramble as these networking giants try to penetrate each other's markets and at the same time protect their
own turf from the aggressive invasion.

Lucent has acquired several companies in recent months to bolster its product lineup and technology arsenal in the
data networking field. Over the past 18 months there have even been occasionally rumors of a mega-merger such as
Lucent buying Bay, Ascend or 3Com. So far, though, Lucent has stuck to smaller acquisitions.

Lucent's stock price, which soared from its 04/96 IPO at $27 to a peak of $90.75 last July, is back to within $10 of
that high after Tuesday's spike. Analysts will likely boost their earnings estimates after Tuesday's blowout report, if for
no other reason than the lower tax rate factor. The near-term outlook will probably depend largely on continued
strength in Lucent's regular telecom systems, wireless equipment and chip businesses. But longer-term, everyone will
be watching the much-anticipated slugfest with Nortel, Cisco and the others over the voice and data networking
market.

It was also announced Tuesday that Lucent President and CEO Richard McGinn will add the title of Chairman.
McGinn will appear on CNBC's Squawk Box Wednesday morning.

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