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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (1145932)	7/1/2019 2:32:25 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Respond to of 1583510

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com; Global Health Implications of Nutrient Changes in Rice under High Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide M.R. Smith S.S. Myers First published: 20 June 2019 doi.org This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1029/2019GH000188 Abstract A growing literature has documented that rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere threaten to reduce the iron, zinc, and protein content of staple food crops including rice, wheat, barley, legumes, maize, and potatoes, potentially creating or worsening global nutritional deficiencies for over a billion people worldwide. A recent study extended these previous nutrient analyses to include B vitamins and showed that, in rice alone, the average loss of major B vitamins (thiamin, riboflavin, folate) was shown to be 17–30% when grown under higher CO2. Here, we employ the EAR cut-point method, using estimates of national-level nutrient supplies and requirements, to estimate how B-vitamin dietary adequacy may be affected by the CO2-induced loss of nutrients from rice only. Furthermore, we use the global burden of disease comparative risk assessment framework to quantify one small portion of the health burden related to rising deficiency: a higher likelihood of neural tube defects for folate-deficient mothers. We find that, as a result of this effect alone, risk of folate deficiency could rise by 1.5 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 0.6-2.6), corresponding to 132 million (57-239 million) people. Risk of thiamin deficiency could rise by 0.7 points (0.3-1.1) or 67 million people (30-110 million), and riboflavin deficiency by 0.4 points (0.2-0.6) or 40 million people (22-59 million). Because elevated CO2 concentrations are likely to reduce B vitamins in other crops beyond rice, our findings likely represent an underestimate of the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on sufficiency of B vitamin intake. Key Points: Global CO2 levels that may be reached as soon as 2050 have been shown to lower the B vitamin content of rice by 17-30% These losses may cause 132 million people globally to become at risk of deficiency in folate, 67 million in thiamin, and 40 million in riboflavin Highly affected regions are those that are mostly nutritionally reliant on rice: Africa (West, East) and Asia (Southeast, East, South)