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To: Jim Goodman who wrote (338)	1/22/1998 6:53:00 AM
From: Narotham Reddy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 582

Excellent article on ASMLF in Investor's Business Daily ASM Lithography Holdings N V / Veldhoven, Netherlands Jan 22, 1998, Page A4 Keeping Sales Up When the Chips are Down By Mathew Benjamin Shipments of wafer steppers, which make circuit patterns on chips fell 23 % in 97 from 96 and are expected to shrink another 6% this year 10 1,007 machines from 1,068 says Dataquest. ASM Lithography Holding has bucked the trend, however, by boosting its market share. ASM is expected to report shipments of 210 steppers in 97 compared with 205 in the year before. ASM had less than 10% of the wafer-stepper market just three years ago. But in 97 it surpassed Japan's Canon Inc to become the No. 2 company, with 25% of the market. "The company has leveraged it smarket share, and because it continues to do so, it will do well even better in a flat market", said analyst Ali Irani of Oppenheimer & Co Inc. ASM has succeeded in raising it share by continuing to win big clients. The company stuck a deal in Sept. with Hyundai Electronics Inc for $170 million of wafer steppers. In July it got a $150 mil. from Micron Technology. Roughly half of ASM's sales come from Asia, Taiwan and S.Korea, 40% from U.S and the remaining 10% from Europe. One way ASM wins new customers is by stressing the savings its products offer. Even though they are priced higher than some of its rivals, ASM thinks its products finally cost less because of their higher quality. "It is more cost effective to buy an ASM lithography tool, because they have better throughput and lower maintenance costs", said analyst Leonard Sanders of Needham & Co. Demand for deep-UV steppers in contrast to the overall market is expected to rise, from 324 units in 97 to 462 units in 98. What is more, deep-UV machine carry large price tag, from $6.5 million to $7.7 million each compared with $3.6 million to $5.5 million for i-line machines. Thus by boosting its deep UV output from just 4% of total units sold in 96 to an estimated 40% in 97, ASM has continued to improve revenue and earnings despire an industry slowdown. ASM earned $1.08 in the first half of 97 up 41% from 76 cents a year ago. Revenue rose 28% to $390.5 million. Analysts expect 97 earnings of $2.22 a share, up 21% from $1.84 in '96, according to First Call. Earning could reach $3.73 in 98. Oppenheimer's Irani expects the company revenue to rise 23% to $945 million in '97. Revenue could climb another 69% to $1.6 billion in '98, he said. The crisis in Asia is causing concern for the future among analysts, hoever. "In out forecast we see some downside risk in the market especially because of the Asian situation", Rinonen said. In his worst-case scenario, Asian woes could cut $300 million out of the overall stepper market, putting it at about $3.5 billion in 98. Sander also belives that ASM's shift to deep UV will reduce its risk, since customers will cut orders for the older, less efficient technology first. "Since ASM is really generating a lot from the deep-UV area, which still is a stronger area than other parts of business, they could continue to grow through a downturn", he said. In addition, ASM's production is already booked through '98, Sanders said." Doug Marsh, president of ASM's U.S operations, did say the company expects to gain new clients in '98 and is gearing up to meet added demand. "We are continuing to grow so that we have the facilities and capacity to allow us to ship 450 machines", he said. [Since this, the company has posted earnings beating estimates]

To: Jim Goodman who wrote (338)	2/5/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: Jim Goodman	Respond to of 582

have appreciated the salient comments on this thread....just wanted you to know, because I could not glean any new, special "fundamentals" since my very recent technical/chart pattern "PSYCLE sm" buy on CYMI. in the 15. area, I had to rec'd. taking very quick gains here in the 21. area....just too much, too fast, and CYMI. up against resistance here, as are many previously depressed techs issues....also, a bit tooo mush emotional excitement all of a sudden here, so am out....thanks for the help, together, our two approaches was a good timing team....any other depressed issues you like here ? best wishes, and also, thanks for appreciating that good technical pattern recognition is just as important as good fundamentals....