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Politics : The Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (127701)	7/4/2019 5:31:22 PM
From: Katelew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 355949

You make a good point and thanks for reminding me of the yield curve. I pretty much ignored the markets while I was gone the last 2 months. Before I left, there was a lot of conjecture regarding the yield curve as it was flirting with inversion. Several financial gurus were puzzled by it. I need to get caught up on what they are thinking so thanks again for bringing it up. The puzzle was, of course, why. My own guess is that what's being published about the rates of inflation in the country is understating what's going. I'm seeing it in my own life and it seems like I've been seeing a growing number of price increases being announced by major corporations. The Fed has a goal of 2% so perhaps the market is sniffing out more than that. The thing about the yield curve is that it can invert and stay inverted for a long time, even years, before the economy actually starts to recede. The stock market will take a dive before that but right now this is a market that keeps setting new highs. Along with that, bets are being made that the Fed will cut rates in order to boost the economy. All of this leaves me somewhat confused and definitely indecisive. Nevertheless, my guess still would be that inflation is quietly picking up and this is being reflected in the yield curve. If true, then interest rates will eventually rise organically. We don't care what happens because we are sitting on too much cash right. We're getting older and have been selling here and there for the last year or so. In two weeks another piece of property closes and then we're done as far as real estate goes. So I'd be pretty OK if the stock market dumped or interest rates went up or especially if both happened. Earlier I mentioned how a macro event could be a game changer, and that macro event could be Europe. Most of the EU countries are still economically sclerotic. Many have high unemployment rates and barely profitable banking systems. Democratic nominees want to take this country to a European style of socialism when the reality is that European social programs are growing increasingly more strained. I could be way off track here and I'm trying to look at everything objectively, but I think right now that if the financial markets start sniffing out a Democratic victory next year the stock market will collapse.