Who'll be Suharto's running mate?
All eyes are now on who the Indonesian leader will choose as his
vice-presidential candidate
By S N Vasuki
[JAKARTA]
PRESIDENT Suharto yesterday accepted the ruling Golkar grouping's
nomination to serve a record seventh term in office, stating that he
would "honour" the public demand for the sake of the country.
However, the move was widely expected, and attention is now turning to
who the Indonesian leader will name as his vice-presidential candidate.
The president's choice of a running mate will signal whether he is
serious about dealing with the issue of political succession.
Conventional wisdom has it that if Mr Suharto chooses a lightweight
vice-presidential candidate, it will be a clear sign that he has no
intention of stepping down mid-way through his seventh term. For the
moment, Mr Suharto himself has not said a word about who his running
mate will be.
But the Jakarta gossip mill continues to churn out several contenders.
They include current Vice-President Try Sutrisno, State Minister for
Research & Technology B J Habibie, State Minister for National Planning
Development Ginanjar Kartasasmita and Information Minister Raden
Hartono. Mr Suharto is not due to announce his choice until after the
People's Representative Assembly (MPR) convenes in March for the
presidential elections.
The MPR comprises 425 elected members of the lower House of
Representatives (DPR), 75 nominated members of the Indonesian Armed
Forces (Abri) and 500 members drawn from various walks of life selected
by the president.
Not surprisingly, Mr Suharto exercises tremendous, albeit indirect,
influence on his own re-election process.
Mr Suharto's decision to be re-nominated for a fresh term was conveyed
to representatives of the "Greater Golkar" grouping, comprising the
ruling Golkar grouping, the Armed Forces and the civil service.
Golkar chief Harmoko, Armed Forces chief General Feisal Tanjung and Home
Minister Yogie Memet, who represents the civil service, had a 30-minute
meeting with Mr Suharto yesterday morning.
"President Suharto will accept the people's trust and is ready to be
re-nominated at the MPR to become Indonesia's president from 1998-2003,"
Mr Harmoko told reporters. "The president said that he would do this for
the sake of the country, although he will be sacrificing his family's
interest."
Mr Harmoko, who is also House Speaker, told Mr Suharto that Golkar had
"canvassed" public opinion on who should be the next president. "The
majority of people still want Suharto," he said.
Due to Mr Suharto's advancing age and Indonesia's economic crisis, there
is tremendous interest on who Mr Suharto will choose to fill the crucial
vice-presidential slot. Mr Harmoko yesterday said that as the
vice-presidency was shaping up to be an "important and strategic"
position, Mr Suharto had suggested new selection criteria.
The vice-president, he said, should understand technology and industry
and be capable of maintaining national integrity and unity.
Of course, Jakarta tycoons have other suggestions. "My advice to Mr
Suharto on who should be vice-president is simple," said a local tycoon.
"If he wants an elderly candidate, former vice-president Sudharmono fits
the bill. If he wants someone younger than that, he should opt for
Information Minister Hartono. However, if Mr Suharto is convinced that
the criteria should be youth, he should select General Wiranto."
The five frontrunners at this stage are: Dr Habibie (62), Mr Ginanjar
(57), General Hartono (57), State Secretary Murdiono (64), and Gen
Wiranto (49), Armed Forces Chief of Staff.
Other potential candidates include incumbent Mr Sutrisno, Siti
Hardiyanti Rukmana, Mr Suharto's eldest daughter and Mr Harmoko.
Analysts acknowledge that Mr Suharto's choice of a vice-president will
be made after delicate negotiations with Abri.
In 1993, the Armed Forces selected Mr Sutrisno though he was not Mr
Suharto's first choice for the post. However, there is a view that the
president may well select Mr Sutrisno for a fresh term because he
remains loyal to the President and his tenure has not attracted any
controversy.
For the moment, Mr Suharto holds the political aces in negotiating for a
vice-presidential candidate with the Armed Forces. But the president's
political position will weaken if Indonesia witnesses an outbreak of
major social unrest before the elections.
As the Army will be called in to keep the peace, they are certain to
demand a vice-president of their choice. Hence, unlike previous
incumbents who functioned in the shadow of Mr Suharto, the selection of
Indonesia's next vice-president will be a crucial exercise.
They feel that whoever Mr Suharto selects as his running mate will
essentially be groomed to succeed the president should he die in office
or is incapacitated.
And unlike previous elections, which did not generate much international
attention, Indonesia's next vice-president will be closely watched by
financial markets. Foreign investors would like to know the incumbent's
economic credentials and his commitment to deregulation and free trade.
Despite the intense speculation, the choice of Indonesia's next
vice-president simply boils down to who Mr Suharto want as his running
mate in 1998. Does he see the appointment as aimed at political
succession or as a cushy pre-retirement post for a loyal cabinet
minister or general? Jakarta analysts feel one thing is certain.
Figuring out Mr Suharto's strategy is an impossible task. |
