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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (1349)	1/22/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

We are in the era now of "managed news" because the truth wouldn't be good for us to know, particularly about what is happening in Asia right now. In the major media we aren't even being treated to the "spin doctors"... we are being given (forgive me for the pun) the silent treatment. I don't think the major media nor the commercial rating agencies have given their constituencies the information. At that news about Asia has always been skimpy because of the various elites who don't gain anything by telling you what they know. We are suffering a different sort of "insider's information" lag that even A.Greenspan is suffering, as well as the rating agencies. As a recurring theme in my posts I have stressed the idea that with a credit contraction/implosion it is akain to the woof and warp of a textile, pulled from different directions, unravelling under the strain. At that stripped of all the white noise basically, what is happennig in Asia is that you are seeing - tragically for many, many people - small businesses cut off from credit which is the lifeblood of their commerical life. Laid over this you see "crony credits given to politicians,and corrupt businessmen" going belley up as no bank has the cash to grant the new "crony credits" Then, ast but not least, you have the banks dealing with diminshed reserves because local currency and stock markets have cratered. This leads to governments pumping out vast amounts of new money, which people then hoard and don't spend. Tripping down this thorny path....this leads to people buying less. Note now that OPEC is faced with drastically falling prices with Saudi Arabia now pumping 3 x the amount of oil they pumped in the 1972/73 crisis. Nobody is driving their little cars around they are just letting them depreciate in the garages. On the bright side it may well be that for America, which seems to be the "engine" that repeatedtly pulls the world along behind it into prosperity through the miracle of the credit card, for American things around the world will just get hellaciously cheap. At that since the Amerian public is universally oblivious to these problems because of the "managed news" they get. There is no panic in America. Americans are fearlessly spending. At that America, I believe, depends on exports for only 15% of GDP: of that only 6% is exported to Asia. It may well be that we "gain" much more than that from oil imports and Japanese puzzle boxes that are suddenly 30%-40% cheaper to buy in the US. At that because America is "a safe haven from monetary catastrophe".. America sucks in money from as far away as Mars. All of which is to say is that the economists will tell us exactly what has happened after it has happened. And boy will there be a lot more dollars and yen around to buy things with as the monetary authorities really flail around on the starting blocks in the next months. And that will lead to a huge US stock market rise in.... 1999. As for my last prediction. This is one you can really manke money on Thomas. History and time will stop in 1999. For the next 500,000 years it will always be 1999 because of the YK2000 problem. That is, hey from 1999 on... we will always live in the present and the future with all it's nettlesom problems won't exist..