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Strategies & Market Trends : US Inflation and What To Do About It -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (1055)	8/2/2019 1:15:59 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1504

Interesting two year treasury about 30 basis points lower than 13 week.. Inversion now only at very short dated maturities after all this turmoil since last spoke to you.. Still not expecting recession YET with homebuilder stocks so strong (DHI only 2% off cycle high), with 10 year treasury (3.75% 30 yr mortgage rates) and oil prices ($2.30-2.50 unleaded most America) this near cycle low.. What we have in common with 2001 and 2008 is yield curve, extended cycle and too much debt accumulation in certain areas. Just checked German DAX with negative yields still strong.. This probably will end up be the MOAB's when millenials are all into housing and off of social media and out of their parent's bedroom...lol When you think about it so many headwinds against US economy plus QT and tariff war we didn't have prior recessions is amazing we are still trending 1.7M annual job creation. In 2006 we had 2M and 2007 dropped to 1M with stock markets roaring to all time highs late 2007. Timing with 2020 election cycle will be something to behold. I hope that even if you are right at least 2020 = 2007 works much better on timing and reelection. But good timing didn't help Gore in 2000. This just hit the wires. Mortgage market in a far different place than GWB years.. reversemortgagedaily.com Is stunning to me such tight underwriting still in housing YET has been like the wild wild west regarding auto and student loans for most of this cycle