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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (19759)	1/22/1998 12:31:00 PM
From: vinod Khurana	Respond to of 42771

Personally, I don't think NDS for NT will be a hit for two reasons: 1. Novell has an image problem and Microsoft's latest tactic just made it worse. Without MSFT's blessing, users will be hesitant installing NDS for NT and especially so now that NT is the fast becoming the dominant server operating system. Besides who wants to buy anything other than NetWare from NOVL? Every other product the company sells is not exactly the best in the marketplace and faces to much competition in other well known companies. Case in point: Groupwise is third place. Is there a fourth product that competes in this segment ? Exactly !! In other words, Novell is in last place in this segment of the market. BorderManager sales are declining. They may have been a hit in the first few weeks but you don't exactly hear anymore about it. The honeymoon is over. 2. Why install NDS when NT 5.0 will introduce their own Directory Services later this year or early next year. Has history not shown that mixing supporting two products is a very expensive proposition ? Besides, what is the rush ? Our Dr.'s recent claim that NDS is doing well is nothing more than talk....just as he bragged about BorderManager when it was first introduced. That thing about supporting Java etc... It is too soon for it to have any material impact on the bottom line. NOVL stock is trading at $7 + change. Based on fundamentals, it will probably stay at these levels for years to come until NOVL introduces a killer app. which in my opinion is not about to happen Based on technical reasons, or takeover rumours this stock should fly to $12 1/2. In other words, I see a suckers rally taking this stock to new highs in 1998. Those investing strictly on NOVL's future prospects, I advise you to stay out. Those who want to wait for that one brief technical rally, hang in there....eventually it will come. SUNW and MSFT are better plays on fundamentals. NOVL is a good play at $7 if the intent is to park cash. V.K P.S Joe, NOVL still behaving eratically. In up markets, it falls and in down markets, it hardly does anything except move up 1/32 +/- 1/64. As I have said, great place to park the cash.