Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (62290)	8/1/2019 12:12:54 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78666

AAWW reporting a poor quarter and stock down sharply. "Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides outsourced aircraft and aviation operating services. It operates through three segments: ACMI, Charter, and Dry Leasing." “Revenue and earnings in the second quarter were below our expectations, as air cargo volumes and yields were affected in the near term by the widely reported impact of tariffs and trade tensions,” said Chief Executive Officer William J. Flynn. “In addition, our results during the period were impacted by labor-related service disruptions. Stock now $35.57 down about $10 on the news. Ouch! Tangible bv per Adfin is $68(?). Company's been profitable every year past ten. If problems were primarily labor-related, I'd guess that would eventually get sorted. Otoh, resolution of the macro issue(s) don't seem near resolution. A permanent loss of business? I'll hold my shares, maybe risk a little more at these prices. Not much confidence though.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (62290)	8/1/2019 2:31:48 PM
From: richardred	1 Recommendation Recommended By Spekulatius Respond to of 78666

> blaming the results on trade tariffs. I hadn't seen this before, maybe I should have expected it, Or maybe that's the excuse of the quarter, like blaming the weather. IMO I think it's a case by case basis. I made a post about P&G posting organic growth of 7% in a so called economic slow down. My point being. IMO This most likely calls for CAPEX spending in those growth areas. Yes, I do believe there is a slow down. More so outside the US economy. I could be wrong, but I personally think a lot of pent up CAPEX spending is being deferred. I personally don't see how economists can predict the effect of tariffs without guessing. Then trying to go over post economic data and then trying to assign parts of it to tariffs. IMO Most companies do eventually adjust if they are felling tariff effects . As to keep politics just as it relates to stocks in general. I personally believe the US now has an economic advantage through lower tax rates and other economic incentives. RE-China Trade -With the big exception and huge market of various commodities and goods like planes, medical items, and generally unique US items. I personally don't see the Chinese Gov't wanting the majority of their working people paying extra for American Goods. Don't get me wrong . I would eventually like to see a fair China deal. I personally think we need the European market and emerging markets more for trade. JMO FWIW-I bought some MOD MODINE MANUFACTURING CO today on the earnings miss. .It's been on the watch list. I believe a reasonable PE with recovery potential. It also fits with my fairly recent buys of TWIN & addition of ASTE. Both of those earnings misses. All these seem to me to have reasonable balance sheets to weather a storm till things get better. IMO They should fit into a infrastructure theme witch is sorely need in this country. I know I've been say that for many years now, and still nothing. Infrastructure-It just might be a US economic stimulus to pick up economic activity from here. Given the current political climate, I'm doubtful . Currently, I've cut my Portfolio down to 20 companies from 30. P.S. While write this post a new 10% tariff on 300 billion Chinese imports.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (62290)	8/1/2019 6:24:45 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78666

Re SIEGY - Siemens (SIEGY) also had a below expectation quarter, and blamed the results in a slowdown in Europe and Asia business. I find this somewhat troubling&scary since this is such a big company with diverse businesses. Stock is now near 12-mo low. I'll hold on to my few shares. My read is that the manufacturing sector in Germany is already in a recession and Germany may get in a shallow recession so far. It‘s fallout from the trade war and the weak auto sector. Some stocks I am watching : FPE.DE (leading lubricant manufacturer), DUE.DE (leader in 3 different machinery sectors , Paint machines (Auto), woodworking and measurement systems, KRN.DE (bottling machines). One could consider them hidden champions, and I feel they could become great values at some point. (No position so far). All of them have in common that they are controlled by owner operators.