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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: blankmind who wrote (31589)	1/22/1998 1:17:00 AM
From: Gary Korn	Respond to of 61433

Blankmind, I just wanted to repost this item from the News only thread, a snippet from Broadband Networking News. It deals with projected ATM sales growth: ATM Revenue Forecast - Worldwide ($ Millions) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Services 103.3 242.4 478.9 914.7 1,604.6 Equipment 1,096.0 1,962.6 2,994.2 4,252.6 5,663.1 Totals 1,199.3 2,205.0 3,473.1 5,167.3 7,267.7 In 4Q97, ASND had about 125MM in ATM sales. If that had held true throughout 1997 (an incorrect assumption, but I need a baseline), ASND would have had about 500MM of ATM sales in 1997, or about 25% of total equipment sales for 1997. If, in 1998, ASND can capture 25% of projected ATM sales, that would be about 750MM in 1998 sales. Actually, this number is consistent with projected total 1998 sales of $1.4B by ASND and with managements' statement that core switching sales will be greater than RAS sales in 1998. Perhaps this is one reason why mgmt. is so confident about 1998. In 1999, if the assumed 25% market share holds steady and if the growth forecast is accurate, then we are talking about over $1Billion in ATM equipment sales alone by ASND, which is about equal to sales for all product lines combined in 1997. If RAS has any kind of growth, ASND total sales in 1999 could approach or exceed $1.75 Billion. Also, this assumes a constant share of the ATM market. Significantly, if one reads the full report, you get the distinct impression that ATM essentially has just taken off the launching pad. As much hype as there is about xDSL, the technology that is in fact now rocketing off (rather than being hyped for take-off) is ATM. Here is a quote from the article: "What we are seeing is that ATM has gone almost full circle," says Jeff Kiel, manager, product marketing for Ascend Communications' [ASND] core systems division. "ATM was originally developed as an internal network tool, and a single network infrastructure. There was a time when there was a lot of excitement about applications for ATM - ATM to the home, ATM to the desktop. But, it has come back full circle to a high-speed multiservice, multiuser core for networks." "The concept of [ATM] originally was to create a common transport that has telco-like capabilities, in that it was deterministic and able to set up different types of services," says Craig Johnson, principal analyst at Dataquest. "Conceptually, ATM was a major shift. It's just been a long time from conception to quasi reality." (Contact: Ascend, 508/692-2600; Dataquest, 503/287-7542; FORE, 412/742-4444; GDC, 203/574-1118; Newbridge, 703/736-5791; Nortel, 613/723-49200) Gary Korn