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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (149982)	8/12/2019 9:42:14 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217542

Am not very concerned about the USA-China trade war, it’s possible / probable effect on China, because the mathematics say not very much to worry about. In the meantime China export is growing, the opposite of shrinking. I am not suggesting that trade-warring is good. I am postulating as always had, that trade war to continental economies are not dire, and in the long run may be healthy. The collateral splash damage to smaller economies, banana domains, and companies caught wrong-footed may be existential. In the meantime as team China ups value-add, electric buses in place of plastic flowers, etc etc, the absolute, export can decease and matters still turn out to be a net win, materially. For the importing continental economy, unless orange-for-orange price-equivalent replacement can be sourced from alternative producers, and in a hurry, folks just pay more for less, which may be acceptable depending on circumstances The war between team USA and China is not strictly a trade war, or has progressed to beyond trade war, to tech campaign, currency battle, idea conflict, and and and, how it all turns out depends on too many variables so perhaps best to wait and see until clearer. I am still waiting for China banking collapse as I am told to wait for interest rate to head up by folks who believe soya means a hill of beans. As and when and if team China expire should hold flat or head down, there would be far greater concerns all around the world than whatever may be then happening w/i China, I suspect. But then perhaps I am being too mathematical. Let’s see :0) scmp.com

To: Pogeu Mahone who wrote (149982)	8/12/2019 9:46:32 AM
From: carranza2	2 Recommendations Recommended By dvdw© Pogeu Mahone Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 217542

I wonder to what extent, if any, HK contributes to China’s numbers. China’s problem is that it has grown too much, too quickly. It takes time to establish workable structures to handle inordinate growth. Politically, inordinate growth leads to hubris. Plus, China has a history of very fractious internal disputes. If HK is a mega-Tianmen Square, tariffs might be a historical footnote. It will take great wisdom to deal with HK protestors, but who is their leader? Who does Xi deal with? And there is the ‘face’ issue. China cannot allow a colony to call the shots. But once HK was allowed to be Freedom Rock, the die was cast. Freedom is a drug, the strongest one. Once it becomes a habit, it cannot be taken away, except at great cost. Bottom line: CCP should relent, let HK be Freedom Rock, whatever the loss of face and political capital that may result notwithstanding. The temptation to blame Trump will be great